Euro Chat with Joe Ross
Chat log from: Thursday, April 12, 2007
| SusanL joined. | |
| faq joined. | |
| Mikhail joined. | |
| SusanL | Hi Mikhail |
| joeross joined. | |
| Mary joined. | |
| murra joined. | |
| joeross | Hi everyone |
| murra | Hi Joe, and everyone |
| crosten joined. | |
| murra | How are you Joe? |
| joeross | I'm fine murra |
| crosten | Joe, why does the price of a currency futures different from the price of the spot price ? |
| Mikhail | Hi Joe, Susan and ALL! :) |
| joeross | Hi Mikhail |
| SusanL | Hi Mikhail |
| SusanL |
Joe, a chat user "wkc" asked us the following question via e-mail: "I had a question about fx and carrying charges. Should this interest charge be a consideration for long term trading...ie should a person only trade if he can also receive the intrest.....or does it all work out in the wash.....nobody seems to want to address this.....thanks" |
| Mikhail | Joe, do you know if the majority of CTAs are located in the Chicago area? |
| joeross |
wkc: The carrying charges in forex are a major problem. They work both ways. You pay interest or you earn interest. But it is difficult to keep track of because the interest rate is constantly changing. Forex brokers avoid talking about it because they know it will drive people away. Most retail forex is day trade. Long term traders of any substance use the Interbank for their trading. |
| joeross | Mikhail. I don't think they are. There is no real reason for a CTA to locate in Chicago |
| crosten | Joe, why does the price of a currency futures different from the price of its spot price? |
| joeross | crosten: Futures reflect the interest that will be earned on the currency by the time it matures to cash. |
| Mikhail | spot is now, futures ---> future :) |
| crosten | So that's the reason the price is higher than the spot because of the premium. |
| Mikhail | Spot reflects the present supply-demand, where as futures reflect anticipated supply-demand in the future, |
| Mikhail | Right Joe? |
| joeross | Right Mikhail |
| Mikhail | Anyone one catch the move today in ER2? |
| joeross | I caught two moves in the notes |
| joeross | But ER2 made a very nice move. So did ES. All our ES methods made money today. |
| Mikhail | Bonds are driving me nuts for the past two days.... |
| Mikhail | Joe, any idea why the volatility is so low???? |
| crosten | Joe, does currency futures have any influence on spot price? |
| joeross | Mikhail: They are waiting for the reports. Tomorrow is PPI and Balance of trade. Tomorrow will be very volatile. |
| Mikhail | Crosten: of course, since the two are substitutes..... |
| Mikhail | Perfect sense, Joe--waiting for the reports. |
| joeross | crosten: Currency futures and cash influence each other. |
| Mikhail | I need to learn how to curtail my trading prior to major reports. Or perhaps just sell resistance and buy support when we are moving sideways.... |
| crosten | In what way does they influence each other? Does the currency futures lead spot price or vice versa? |
joeross
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crosten: It is not a matter of either one being the leader. If they become too far apart, the arbitrageurs will come in and sell the expensive one driving the price down, and buy the cheap one driving the price up so that the spread is very narrow, except for the amount that is interest to be earned |
| crosten | Great info Joe |
| crosten | Besides correlation with each other, is there any other way they influence each other? |
| joeross | crosten: There are both economic and political ways they influence each other--too long to go into here |
| crosten | Joe, could u comment on USD/CAD? She's a beauty. |
| joeross | crosten: Here's my comment: When I was a boy the Canadian dollar was worth $1.01. I think you will see that happen again. |
| crosten | ?? Why will it happen again? Are you in the trade? |
| joeross | crosten: It will happen again because the dollar is weak and C$ is strong due to it being a commodity country. I don't have any C$s and I'm not trading it. |
| crosten | I did a historical search, it was way back in 1978! |
| joeross | crosten: When I was a boy it was a lot earlier than that. |
| crosten | Joe: Why are you not doing position trades nowadays? |
| joeross | crosten: I don't have time to monitor position trades. |
| crosten | Joe, from what time to what time does the sushi bar signal a trade? |
| joeross | 4PM to 5PM |
| crosten | Est time? |
| joeross | CT |
| crosten | Did you take any trades today Joe? |
| Mikhail | What time is it in Japan? :) |
| Mikhail | Must be morning in Japan |
| joeross | 3:38AM in Tokyo |
| crosten | Joe, I see that you have a link forex spreads, what info do you plan to put? |
| joeross | crosten: I'm not sure, but it will probably be forex spreads ;) |
| crosten | Joe when will you be doing an online day trade seminar? |
| joeross | crosten: I don't know. None is scheduled yet. |
| crosten | Joe: How long have you been trading the profit popper live? |
| joeross | crosten: I haven't been trading it live. |
| joeross | crosten: If you read above, you will see I took 2 trades in the notes. |
| crosten | Why haven't you been trading it live Joe? |
| joeross | crosten: Because I have enough to trade with what I am already trading. |
| crosten | Which of your methods has a highest win probability? |
| joeross | crosten: Probably it is the Easy Bond Method |
| joeross | Almost 80% wins. |
| crosten | Joe: Why do trading methods have cycles? |
joeross
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crosten: Because from time-to-time the market changes from the way it presents itself when the method was winning. When it moves back to the way it presented itself at the time the method was created, the method begins to win again. |
| crosten | Joe how long have you been trading the Easy Bond Trading Method live? When did you debut it ? |
| joeross | crosten: More than 2 years ago |
| crosten | Is that the time you go live or debut it? |
| joeross | That's the time we first let people have it. |
| crosten | How about the start time you trade it personally? |
| joeross | crosten: About 4 years ago |
| joeross | It's time for me to go. |
| crosten | thks joe |
| joeross | See you next week. I think that will be next to the last chat until I return in late May. |
| joeross | bye |
END OF CHAT
Next Chat with
Joe Ross:
Thursday, April 19 , 2007
Time: 8:00 - 9:00 P.M., European Central Time (Berlin, Paris, Rome)
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