Euro Chat with Joe Ross
Chat log from: Thursday, August 16, 2007
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| JoeRoss joined. | |
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| JoeRoss | Hi Tom |
| JoeRoss | Hi Kevin |
| tomn | Hi Joe |
| JoeRoss | Wild day in the ES today. |
| kevinj | Hello Joe |
| kevinj | Wow! |
| tomn | The RUT too.. unbelievable. |
| kevinj | Wow! |
| kevinj | AD down 5%. |
| tomn | It was around 736 and 15 min later it was around 750. |
| JoeRoss | Not to worry about AD, it will come back in spades. This is buying opportunity. |
| kevinj | That was what I was thinking . |
| JoeRoss | Right now there is a lot of flight to the U.S. dollar. |
| kevinj | Yeha! |
| tomn | What is AD? |
| kevinj | Australian dollar. |
| tomn | Ahh ok. |
| kevinj | ? |
| JoeRoss |
With the stock market going into the tank, a lot of trades are unwinding, and that means free dollars. As bad as the U.S. economy is, when people get nervous they still flee to the liquidity of the U.S. dollar. |
| tomn | Euro is down.. My mortgage will be less expensive this month! :) |
| kevinj | They said that the bomb dropped because the exchange closed and they couldn't hedge with futures how do they do this / how is it related. |
| JoeRoss |
I'm short a bunch of 1360 ES Puts, with one day to go, I got $7.25 for them |
| kevinj | Good for you |
| tomn | When did you short them Joe? |
| JoeRoss |
Kevin: The CBOE and the CFE were down for awhile, are they still down? During the time they were down, traders couldn't hedge in the options, or the CFE index futures. CFE is a subsidiary of the CBOE and it is possible to trade some indexes there. |
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| JoeRoss | I shorted them when the ES was trading around 1377, about 40 minutes ago. |
| kevinj | S&P down 18.5. |
| kevinj | Dow down 179. |
| kevinj | Up from 300. |
| tomn | Nice short Joe. |
| kevinj | Compx down 36.57. |
| JoeRoss | All I have to do is hang on until noon tomorrow |
| tomn | :) |
| kevinj | Yeah I love the book "Trading Optures and Futions." |
| JoeRoss | If I get in trouble, I'm gonna double up and sell the 1350s. |
| kevinj | This is how I would like to trade one day, but for now just futures. |
| JoeRoss | The option premiums are incredible for just 1 day to go. |
| JoeRoss | They expire tomorrow at noon and they are bringing wild premiums. I guess noon is the last chance to exercise any options. |
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| tomn | The volatility is unbelievable right now. RUT is normally around 19% to low 20% IV.. Sep is 38% right now. |
| JoeRoss | If ES hits 1400, I'm gonna buy them back. Probably pay less than $1 for them. |
| fabio | Hi joe, hi everybody. |
| JoeRoss | Hi Fabio |
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| JoeRoss | Hi colbru |
| JoeRoss | And here's crosten. |
| colbru | Hi joe |
| JoeRoss | I have to tell you that I must leave 15 minutes early today. |
| crosten | Joe, would you say the USD/YEN collapsed it moved 400 pts. today? |
| crosten | I have never seen such violence in the yen. |
| crosten | 500 pts on the euro/yen. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I didn't see it. I've been focused entirely on the ES today. |
| crosten | It moved 100 pts. without any news release with 2 min in the European and US sessions. |
| JoeRoss | Wow look at it go!! 1403 now. Amazing. A short time ago it was almost to 1370. But those option premiums have not dropped enough. |
| tomn | ES is already > 1400.. still lots of premium in those puts. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: Did the yen go up or down? |
| fabio | Do you enter a trade with a stop limit order or stop order usually? I have been jumped this morning on the Dax. |
| kevinj | Wow. Maybe the play is sell JY buy AD. They are at opposite ends of the bollinger bands. |
| crosten | Would you say that we that the carry trade is unwinding? Is there any more room for unwind? |
| JoeRoss | The carry trade is at only the beginning of the unwinding. It has a long way to go. |
| crosten | Yen positive Joe. |
| crosten | I haven't seen such move in the yen? Have you Joe? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: Yen is very strong as they unwind the carry trade. |
| crosten | I mean have you ever seen such move? |
| crosten | Wild all the market are wild. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I once saw the yen move 610 points in one night. |
| crosten | When was the last time you experience such market turbulence Joe? |
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| kevinj | Soy is limit down. |
| JoeRoss | 9 months later the yen moved 520 in one night. |
| beginner | Hi Joe. |
| JoeRoss | Hi beginner. |
| crosten | The es is wild!! |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I think that was around 1993-1994. |
| crosten | What crisis was that Joe? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I don't remember any crisis, but there may have been one. |
| JoeRoss | The greatest crisis was in our trading office, because some of the traders were short and failed to put stops in the overnight forex to protect themselves. |
| beginner | Joe, I have a question for you about 50% stop ... when do you start to count 50% stop ... when you cover your costs and move your stop to break even? |
| crosten | joe, last week I asked you whether we are seeing a market top in the equities and you said no, have you changed your views ? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I haven't changed my view yet. |
| tomn | Joe.. how long do you reckon the volatility will last in the market like this? |
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| fabio | Markets have to go down too, not only up. |
| JoeRoss | beginner. Yes, that's a good time, but you have to test each market and time frame to see how it works. |
| crosten | Joe do you foresee a market collapse? |
| SusanL | Joe, do you have a quiz question? |
| JoeRoss | No quiz this week. |
| JoeRoss | tomn: It's anybody's guess. |
| crosten | Joe, am I right to day on the daily chart of snp, we have 123 followed by ross hooks. |
| fabio | Joe, do you enter a trade with a stop limit or with a stop usually? I have been jumped this morning intraday on the Dax |
| JoeRoss | My friend Braam sent me a Dow chart today and it looks like he is projecting down to Dow 1200. He is very good at those projections. |
| JoeRoss | But he also feels that we are not in a downtrend just yet. |
| tomn | That this is just a healthy correction? |
| JoeRoss | A lot of big traders feel this is just an ABC correction and that we are very close to the bottom. |
| JoeRoss | fabio: I can't give a general statement about what kind of order to use. It depends on what I'm trying to accomplish with the order. |
| crosten | Fed is making announcement at in 16 minute, a rumour? |
| beginner |
Joe, thank you, I know I have to test it. When you are using the 50% stop, how do you count it? Do you count your paper profit this way: from entry point to today's closing price? or from your entry point to today's low (in an uptrend) ? I am going to test both methods |
| crosten | A rumour in a merc pit, that's why we are seeing the market rally, we could see a fed cut. |
| JoeRoss | That's the feeling among a lot of pros. They say the Dow simply went up too fast and was overdue for this. |
| JoeRoss | ES seems headed for 1410. |
| fabio | Joe:- the case was: scalping, 8 points profit, 8 points stop loss... normally being filled with stop limit. |
| crosten | Wild |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I don't know. As I said I'm completely focused on the ES. Bingo! 1410 exactly. |
| crosten | Joe are we in a bear market? |
| tomn | Joe, what time frame are you using for your ES trading today? |
| JoeRoss | I have to leave 15 minutes early today. and I want to buy back my options before then. |
| fabio | Hi Susan, how are you? |
| crosten | Joe would you say we are in an established down trend in the equities market ? |
| SusanL | Hi Fabio, fine and you? |
| fabio | Me too thanks. |
| SusanL | Have we met at Joe's seminar in Italy? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: it's too soon to tell if we are in a bear market. |
| fabio | Yes, we have. |
| JoeRoss | tomn: right now I'm looking at a 5 minute chart. |
| crosten | Why is that so Joe, we have a 1-2-3 and Ross Hook, right? |
| crosten | Stop running in the es right now? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I would not say we are in an established down trend just yet. |
| crosten | Why not yet Joe? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: It depends on which time frame you are looking at. |
| crosten | We have 123 and Ross Hook, right? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: maybe stop running and maybe PPT. |
| crosten | What is the thing that will convince you that we are in a bear market? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: Time will tell. Time will convince me. |
| tomn |
Joe.. We're about to eat dinner so I have to go. I've been reading your books and really enjoy them. Thanks so much for writing them. Gaby and I are really looking forward to meeting you and Loretta in Nov. |
| JoeRoss | So far all this is, is a correction to a market which went up much too fast. |
| crosten |
The market has been making lower lows this past few days, isn't that a sign of a bear? |
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| JoeRoss | cu tomn |
| crosten | Joe, do you think the fed will stun the market by cutting rates? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: Why is that the sign of a bear? Is it doing that on the weekly or monthly charts. |
| JoeRoss | Hi rascal |
| rascal2 | Hi Joe and all. |
| crosten | eem! |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I don't have an opinion. Why should I guess? They will do what they will do and I will trade accordingly. |
| crosten | How about the yen on the weekly chart ? Doesn't that look like a downtrend to you? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I'm not looking at the yen. |
| crosten | Great stop running on the es. |
| JoeRoss | I don't usually trade the yen. |
| fabio | joe when you daytrade do you trade a Rh if it is the edge of a measuring (or supposed to be) bar? |
| crosten | Why Joe, it went wild today. |
| JoeRoss | fabio: No, I probably wouldn't take that trade. |
| crosten | Will the FED cutting the rates help the market, or will the market just ignore it. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: How many times do I have to tell you that I am focused entirely on the ES today. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: Why don't we wait to see what the FED does and see how the market reacts? |
| crosten | Joe you are trading es options right? not the outright contract? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: Yes I am short the 1360 Puts. |
| crosten | the market is loving the dollar. |
| JoeRoss | They have only 1 day left to trade. They must be exercised by noon tomorrow. |
| crosten | When the Philly FED came out the dollar actually rallied. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: That is a flight to liquidity. Only the yen is strong against the dollar and probably the Indian rupee. |
| crosten | Bad news is good news for the dollar, people are trading the currency market based on what the equities are doing. |
| crosten | The brazilian real futures was halted. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: The real has taken a "real" beating lately. |
| crosten | Joe, you will only be convinced we are in a bear if the weekly and monthly are telling you so right? |
| crosten | You don't look at daily chart for long term trend? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: Right. The daily chart does not tell you the long-term trend until you see it on the weekly chart. |
| crosten | What a classic stop running. |
| JoeRoss | That's what they are doing, running the stops. |
| crosten | Yes Joe, I agree, the weekly chart of the eur/usd is still in an up trend. |
| JoeRoss | Who knows where this will end up today. |
| crosten | Joe, are the wild movements caused by investors or traders? |
| JoeRoss | It's an exciting day. |
| crosten | Or ppt? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: The wild movements are caused by fear :) |
| crosten | Or the suckers? |
| JoeRoss | I have been expecting PPT to come in at almost any time. And the action we are seeing right now sure looks like them. |
| crosten | The whole world market is moving, fascinating stuff. |
| crosten | Go PPT. |
| JoeRoss | Right now I am rooting for them. |
| JoeRoss | I want them to take the market higher. |
| crosten | To lure the suckers Joe? |
| JoeRoss | Otherwise I have to wait until tomorrow to buy back my puts. |
| JoeRoss | I'm not worried about the suckers, I just don't want to be one of them. |
| crosten | Why are options your preferred choice of market to trade during violent times ? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: Because the premiums are way overpriced. |
| JoeRoss | There is less than 1 full day now until they expire. |
| JoeRoss | And still they are selling for outrageous prices. |
| JoeRoss | Puts below 1370 should be selling for 5 cents. |
| JoeRoss | But they are asking 2.40 for them. |
| crosten | What if you can't buy back your puts, Joe? |
| JoeRoss | At noon tomorrow they will expire worthless if prices are above 1360. |
| fabio | In the American session you had some quiz for chatters? Not here? ;o) |
| JoeRoss | fabio: We had the same quiz here last week. |
| JoeRoss | You missed it. |
| fabio | Sorry.... last week i was at sea..... |
| JoeRoss | I will try to have a quiz for you next week. |
| JoeRoss | Same also for the U.S. chat. People seemed to like it a lot and we had a lot of fun. |
| fabio | yeeess master ;o) |
| JoeRoss | Lady and Gentlemen, I have to pack up and leave now. I have a doctor appointment. Just routine check up. |
| crosten | Joe, do you use Black & Scholes to calculate options or do you have your own formula? |
| JoeRoss | Black Scholes. |
| JoeRoss | See you next week. |
| JoeRoss | Bye all |
| fabio | Good Luck Joe, bye |
| rascal2 | so long, Joe. |
Next EURO Chat with
Joe Ross:
Thursday, August 23, 2007
Time: 8:00 - 9:00 P.M., European Central Time (Berlin, Paris, Rome)
COME BACK WITH YOUR TRADING QUESTIONS & COMMENTS!
