Euro Chat with Joe Ross
Chat log from: Thursday, September 20, 2007
| SusanL joined. | |
| azhdar joined. | |
| azhdar | Hi |
| SusanL | Hi |
| marsh joined. | |
| SusanL | Hi Marsh |
| marsh | Hi Susan |
| marsh | Is Joe recovered from his flu? |
| SusanL | Marsh, yes |
| SusanL | He is doing much better |
| SusanL | How are you? |
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| SusanL | Hi Marco. |
| marco | Hi Susan. |
| marco | How are you doing? |
| marsh | I'm good, thank you for asking. |
| marco | nice to hear ;) |
| JoeRoss joined. | |
| crosten joined. | |
| JoeRoss | Good afternoon. |
| marco | Hi Joe |
| JoeRoss | Good evening in Europe. |
| marsh | Hi Joe. |
| JoeRoss | I'm here |
| JoeRoss | Lots of excitement since the FOMC cut interest rate 50 basis points. |
| murra joined. | |
| JoeRoss | Hi Murra. |
| murra | Hello Joe and all. |
| marco | The CAD$ reached parity for a minute today ;) |
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| JoeRoss | It was more than a minute and I bagged a bunch of money on my Puts. |
| marco | I went short USD/CAD on the monthly TTE a few days ago. Nice trade so far ;) |
| JoeRoss | Too many people are now long gold and the S&P. |
| JoeRoss | When everyone is a buyer the only thing that can happen is for prices to come down. |
| murra | Joe, when Fed or other central banks put money in the system who is buying that money and for what? |
| marsh | Gold is up and SP is down. Gold will follow SP? |
| JoeRoss | murra: They are making it available to either the commercial and investment banks--when they lower the Discount rate, or to the federal reserve banks when they lower the Fed Funds rate. |
| marco | I'm long gold since early January, maybe I'll take my money and run now. |
| marsh | Eurocurrency and SP go in the same direction. That means euro will go down too? |
| JoeRoss | If there are too many longs, gold will come down. But how much is a question. |
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| nathan | Hi everyone. |
| JoeRoss |
marco: Soon a lot of people will be thinking like that. They will start selling gold to take profits. When they do, prices will begin to drop and that will scare out the late longs and the weak longs. So the market will come down further until they get all the weak hands out of the market. |
| JoeRoss | Hi nathan |
| JoeRoss | marsh: Euro is an alter-ego for the dollar. It will stay up as long as the dollar stays down. |
| marco | Joe: well it's a long term position I have for over 9 months now so I'm not scared of some corrections. Of course those have to happen... |
| JoeRoss | marsh: I imagine there will be some minor profit taking rallies in the dollar but that's about it for now. |
| marsh | With the high price of gold, will gold mines start mining more? |
| JoeRoss | marco: I doubt it would come back as low as where you got in, in January. |
| murra | Joe, take a look to es (daily chart ). It is in a trading range (It looks so) the explosion 0,146 has been broken yesterday but close is under explosion high trading range is 1510,5 low 1374 (8-16 August) is this correct? |
| JoeRoss | marsh: Sure the miners will want to get as much for their gold as they can. |
| JoeRoss | The thing that is a drag on the gold mines is that they are stocks, so if stocks go down, gold mining stocks will go down as well, but maybe not as much. |
| nathan | Joe, would you recommend to buy Genesis? |
| JoeRoss | It's that old thing about when the water rises all the boats rise and when the water level falls all the boats fall as well. |
| marsh | I know that Kennecot mine in Utah has veins of gold and silver that they keep in the ground until prices are way up. Then they take some out. |
| nathan | Not the entire company, just the trade navigator |
| JoeRoss | murra: I think ES broke out of the trading range, and right now it is still out. But probably not on the weekly chart. |
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| JoeRoss | nathan: Buy it if you will use it and can find value in the features it has. |
| murra | Which is the high and low of the trading range please? |
| JoeRoss | nathan: Trade Navigator is very good for testing and it has many features. If you use the features then it is worth it. We use it primarily for spreads and for being able to test strategies. |
| JoeRoss | murra: Low 1448, High 1523.75, but that is from a continuous chart. |
| nathan | I have only 4 months of data to back test in real time, that's too few for strategies only having one entry a month. |
| JoeRoss | nathan: I don't understand. Are you saying you need more data? |
| nathan | At least 9-12 months. |
| crosten | Joe, were you shocked that the Fed cut rates 50 pts.? |
| nathan | Yes Joe, I would like more data. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: No shock, I was expecting from .25 to .50. |
| crosten | Are you expecting more rate cuts? |
| JoeRoss | nathan: You can get data all the way back to 1969 at no charge from Genesis. |
| crosten | The bonds took a beating today? shouldn't bonds rally when the Fed cut rates? |
| nathan | Can I trust the back testing results I get? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: There is no law that says bonds have to rally when interest rates are cut. |
| JoeRoss | Our easy bond method had a winning trade today. It went short. |
| crosten | Joe, did you have any open positions going into the FOMC? |
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| mge | Hi. |
| JoeRoss | nathan: If you program your test correctly you can trust the results. |
| murra | Joe, help me in which day is high and low ( I am confuse) I look (probably not correct) a high in the (8-8 and low in 8-16 ) starting 7-26 long bar where is my mistake? Please! |
| nathan | Thanks Joe, that helps me. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I was short 9550 Puts in the C$. |
| JoeRoss | Hi mge |
| mge | Joe, have you seen the ZWZ7, wheat, on daily nice 1=2=3, would you trade the wheat on that formation? |
| JoeRoss | murra: low is 8/28, high is 8/8 or you could say low is 8/6. |
| crosten | Why didn't you buy a Call, Joe? What was your basis for selling short puts in C$? |
| nathan | Is it late to short the dollar? |
| marsh | I'm short ER2 right now. I'm liking it. |
| marsh | Short, that is. |
| JoeRoss | mge: if you are seeing a 1-2-3 high, I would trade it, but with great caution because this may be a blow off top in wheat. |
| mge | Are you in an option strategy Joe? |
| crosten | Joe, you said that the C$ was already in parity when you were a boy, why did it weaken over the years? |
| JoeRoss |
crosten: I am not an option buyer. I figured the puts would be come worthless and that's just about what happened. I sold them for .32 and bought them back this morning for .05. |
| crosten | I guess you won't be visiting Canada anytime soon! |
| crosten | Awesome trade. |
| JoeRoss | nathan: There is no way to tell if it's too late. |
| JoeRoss | mge: I got out this morning with my money. |
| marsh | In wheat, I see a 123 high and a 123 low both going on now at the same time. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: C$ weakened because their economy was lousy and they ran up too much debt. |
| crosten | But now they are back right? |
| crosten | Joe, there is this rumor that people will be selling treasuries as the dollar weakens, what say you ? |
| JoeRoss | marsh: I only see a 1-2-3 high, but I know what you mean. |
| murra | I suspect my chart is not correct in the 8-28 or 28-8 it tell me an low = 1434,75 and in the 8-8 an high at 1510,5 ??? but in the 8-16 it give a low at 1374,51 wy this difference? |
| mge | Would you trade coffee? |
| JoeRoss | C$ is back. That is correct crosten. And the Canadian economy is booming. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: That is already happening. The weak dollar is causing people to dump bonds.. |
| crosten | Joe, can you look at the pound chart on the 1 hr, am I right to say it just made a huge 123? |
| marsh | Yes, thanks for correcting me. I see a RossHook to the upside, and a 123 to the downside, in wheat. |
| JoeRoss | murra: you are not necessarily wrong. I am looking at a continuous chart and so my numbers may be wrong since they have already rolled to the December contract. |
| crosten | Dennis Gartman says that cutting the rates will result in long term mortgages rate to increase is this true Joe? |
| marsh | But wheat is limit up one day, limit down the next day. It's like lumber or pork bellies. |
| JoeRoss | mge: I would rather drink coffee than trade it. I no longer trade anything in New York. |
| crosten | Joe, what is your profit target for the euro? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I have no way to know if what Gartman says is correct. |
| murra | Take a look Sep. 7 please just to tell me if my analysis is correct. |
| mge | Are you in the SP? |
| JoeRoss | I quit trying to see into the future a long time ago. |
| mge | What about bonds Joe, the FED cut rates and bonds go lower? That is not usual. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: Euro target: 1.40 this year and 1.45 next year. It could happen faster and greater, but I have no crystal ball. |
| crosten | 1.45 ouch. |
| JoeRoss | marsh: Typical price action for a blow off in wheat. |
| crosten | Will the ECB intervene at such a level Joe? |
| JoeRoss | murra: 28/8 is low 1434.75 |
| JoeRoss | mge: I'm not in the SP right now. |
| crosten | Joe, do you use CCI for day trading? |
| JoeRoss | mge: Correct, bonds going down on a rate cut; that is not usual, but it is real :) |
| marsh | Whoo, Hoo, the CD just went over 1.00 |
| mge | You think bonds will recover? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I don't think they will, but I'm not the ECB. |
| mge | What answer do you have to bonds reaction? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I use CCI whenever I think it's the right thing to do. |
| JoeRoss | C$ is at 1.04. |
| crosten | What a nice number to see on the C$. |
| JoeRoss | mge: Eventually bonds will recover. |
| JoeRoss |
mge: Bonds reaction is showing that the bond traders want higher interest rates and they are not willing to buy them for less, especially with the dollar falling. |
| JoeRoss |
If you would have looked at the TIC report you would have seen something very interesting. |
| crosten | Joe, almost ever single currency has been weakening even the Indian rupee in this past few days? Is this the end of the dollar? |
| crosten | How do you use CCI to hold the trend? |
| mge | What is the Tic report? |
| JoeRoss |
The U.S. needs $75 billion per month of foreign investment in order to keep the economic system intact. In May they failed to get it and also in June. The same day the FOMC met, the TIC report came out. It showed that only $19 billion was sold in T-Bond debt, the rest was all in short term debt and T-Bills. The U.S. got their $75 billion, but the bond buyers weren't willing to take low interest with the dollar falling. |
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| crosten | Look at the C$! |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I described how to use CCI in my book Trading the Ross Hook. Look there. |
| crosten | Ok. |
| JoeRoss | mge: TIC shows among other things how much of U.S. debt is being purchased by other nations. |
| crosten | How about the Woodies CCI do you use it? |
| crosten | Joe, are you looking for any markets to buy on pull backs? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I don't know anything about Woodies CCI. |
| nathan | What will happen if interest rates in the U.S. are falling and they need to rise because of the debt to get sold? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: Right now I busy counting my money from the trades I made so far this month. I don't have any trades on at the moment. |
| crosten | Nice info Joe. Greenspan refused to tell which currency he is holding? |
| JoeRoss | nathan: That is a great question, and I don't have one answer, but I do have 3 answers. Too much to cover here in the chat. |
| JoeRoss | Greenspan, Buffett, Vice President Cheney to name a few are all getting their money out of dollars. |
| acman | One senator grilled Ben about the dollar and Ben gave a answer that they will deal with inflation as needed basically ignoring the question. The senator really had the facts right too. |
| crosten | Joe, what will stop the dollar from plunging further? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: Profit taking will stop the plunge. |
| crosten | Yes I saw that acman, I think the "helicopter" is worried. |
| JoeRoss | Longs taking profit from foreign currencies and shorts taking profits from the dollar will cause the plunge to stop, at least for awhile.. |
| acman | Rick Pinelli on the bond floor is mentioning the dollar in every broadcast and how we are within 1/2 cent of an all time low. |
| JoeRoss | acman: We will definitely test it. |
| crosten | joe what market are you looking currently for position trades? |
| JoeRoss | C$ is at 1.13, really overbought. I use the term loosely. |
| crosten | Yes, yes. |
| crosten | History in the making. |
| crosten | 1979. |
| crosten | Look at it go!! |
| nathan | Are the media and the people still optimistic for the future of the U.S.? |
| acman | I guess if one has dollars it is best to ride out the storm at these levels. |
| JoeRoss | euro is at 1.41, almost reached 1.42. |
| crosten | Joe, what broker do you use for CFD? |
| JoeRoss | I bought euros last week when they were 1.386. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I don't have a CFD broker yet. I am waiting for Australia to put them on a regulated exchange. |
| crosten | Did you buy GBP Joe? You said that the price went outside the control bar last week? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: No, I bought euros instead and now I am very glad. |
| crosten | But the GBP went tumbling down right after the chat as the news about Northern Rock hit the wires. |
| crosten | Joe, do you usually buy when the price went outside the control bar or do you wait for the current bar to Close before buying? |
| JoeRoss | GBP is not participating is this currency explosion. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I usually wait to see the Close, but I don't limit myself to any set pattern. |
| crosten | Like last week we talked about on the chat . |
| mge | Joe, with your experience and long trading... are you down sometimes in a whole month? |
| murra | Can I send you my chart and have a response if they are correct Joe? |
| crosten | What is the best market to be in right now Joe? |
| nathan | Sorry I meant are the media in U.S. still optimistic? |
| JoeRoss | mge: It has happened that I am down at the end of a month, but I can't remember the last time I was down for a whole month. |
| JoeRoss | murra: send me an email. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: Same answer as always: The market that is making you money. There are many to choose from. |
| crosten | I mean current hot market. |
| murra | I will send it tomorrow because I must ask the bank as do I do to export chart. Be patient. |
| crosten | Hot market, Joe? |
| JoeRoss | nathan: The media never faced reality. So they are still hyping the booming economy. :( |
| murra | Bye bye for next time Joe, and thank you. |
| JoeRoss | Well crosten you are looking at two hot markets right now: The C$ and the euro. |
| JoeRoss | Time to go. I need to take my beauty siesta. |
| crosten | Euro politician is making noise right now. |
| marsh | Thanks, Joe. Great chat. |
| nathan | Thanks very muuucchhooo, and good bye. |
| JoeRoss | That's what Politicians do, crosten. Make a lot of noise but never say anything worth hearing. |
| JoeRoss | Good night all . |
| JoeRoss | Ciao, Servus, Hasta luego. etc. and ta ta. |
| nathan | Bye everyone and good trading. |
Next EURO Chat with
Joe Ross:
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Time: 8:00 - 9:00 P.M., European Central Time (Berlin, Paris, Rome)
COME BACK WITH YOUR TRADING QUESTIONS & COMMENTS!
