Euro Chat with Joe Ross
Chat log from: Thursday, November 1, 2007
| JoeRoss joined. | |
| crosten joined. | |
| crosten | Hey Joe. |
| JoeRoss | Hello. |
| crosten | Joe, what is your understanding of "front end and back end of the curve"? I don't understand this bond jargon. |
| JoeRoss | I don't either. |
| crosten | How about short end and long end of the curve? |
| JoeRoss | Same thing. I don't know what it means. |
| crosten | I saw Bill Gross talking about it, is he referring to the yield curve? |
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| JoeRoss | I think he is referring to the yield curve. |
| crosten | Joe, are you stunned by the speed at which oil is rising? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: No, I'm not stunned. |
| crosten | The price rises so rapidly. |
| JoeRoss | But I wouldn't be surprised to see a major correction very soon. |
| crosten | Joe, is there a reason behind currency seasonality? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: Sure there is. |
| crosten | What's the basic reason, Joe? |
| crosten | What would a major correction be like joe ? $10. |
| JoeRoss | It varies, but I can give you an example. You live in Malaysia, is that correct? |
| crosten | I live in Singapore. |
| JoeRoss | Well you are close to Malaysia. Malaysia produces palm oil, correct? |
| crosten | Yes, tons of it. |
| JoeRoss | Do you know which months they press the oil? |
| crosten | All over the country, there is a boom for it right now. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: Good, that means when Malaysia has oil to sell and it is not available elsewhere, there will be a need for people to have ringgits to pay for the oil. |
| crosten | I don't know Joe, but palm oil bears fruit throughout the year, as it is in the tropical climate. |
| JoeRoss | But other oils like soybean are quite seasonal. So when others don't have as much oil to sell and Malaysia does there will be a seasonal time when the ringgit is in demand. |
| JoeRoss | Seasonality among currencies comes when one nation needs to buy something from another nation and so they must buy that nation's currency. |
| crosten | Thks. |
| JoeRoss | A major correction in crude oil could be $10 or more. |
| crosten | Would you use a Traders Trick should the correction occur? |
| crosten | Out of curiosity, does it snow in Texas? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: Only if a TTE was available. If the correction is very deep, there may not be a TTE. |
| JoeRoss | Some parts of Texas receive some snow, but it is not a lot. |
| JoeRoss | North Texas receives some. |
| JoeRoss | But not every year. |
| crosten | Joe, which part of Africa did you stay for 3 years? |
| JoeRoss | South Africa, just about as far south as it is possible to go. |
| crosten | Joe, do you have a trading mission statement? Is yes what are they? |
| crosten | Cape Town? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: Our mission statement is included on our website and in Traders Notebook. |
| JoeRoss | I lived 7 hours by car east of Cape Town. |
| crosten | do you mean you lived in a car? |
| JoeRoss | No, I lived in a house on 256 hectares. |
| crosten | Joe, may I ask what percent you made on the house you sold? You don't have to tell if you don't want to. |
| JoeRoss | Which house, crosten? |
| crosten | The house that you sold recently. |
| JoeRoss | I paid $128,000 for it and sold it for $157,500 |
| crosten | Are you one of those subrime speculators :) |
| JoeRoss | No. I lived in it for 5 years. |
| crosten | Joe, you said that you were looking for an investment play, have you executed it? |
| JoeRoss | Not yet. |
| crosten | Joe, the AUD dollar made a new high yesterday it needs another 700 points to reach parity? Would you consider it as another candidate for parity? |
| JoeRoss | Yes, absolutely. |
| crosten | Joe, do you have any investment idea that you see as very attractive? |
| crosten | the AUD is up 15%, the climb is so fast! |
| JoeRoss | I'm still looking at investment ideas. |
| JoeRoss | I will try to diversify among commodities and commodity producing nations having currencies that are rising against the dollar. |
| crosten | Did you catch the rally in gold? |
| crosten | Joe, I see that you execute most of your trades on Interactive Brokers? What contracts do you trade on Infinity then? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I'm not really very much interested in gold. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I use Infinity for spreads where I have to call them into the broker. |
| crosten | You feel that gold not going higher? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: In my opinion, gold could reach 3,000. |
| crosten | You managed to catch the gold bull 2 years ago. |
| crosten | Why are you not interested in I don't understand? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I was interested in gold 2 years ago. Now I'm not interested. |
| crosten | Why Joe? Is it because there are other opportunities else where? |
| JoeRoss | Gold pays no interest, it is easily confiscated, you can't spend it, you can't eat it etc. |
| JoeRoss | I feel there are better opportunities around than gold. |
| crosten | Joe, what is your opinion of Adrienne Tograhie, she is not a trader but she teaches psychology? |
| crosten | Trading psychology? |
| JoeRoss |
Adrienne has helped some traders. I know her more as a friend than as a psychologist. But when people need psychological help, I am happy to send them to her. I recommend her course. It is excellent. Adrienne is a very good writer. |
| crosten | Joe, what clearing firm does interactive broker use, they are based in uk right? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: IB is its own clearing firm. |
| JoeRoss | I'm not sure where they are based. |
| JoeRoss | They have offices in a number of countries. |
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| crosten | A broker with its own clearing firm must be a strong company right? |
| JoeRoss | I just looked it up. They are based in the U.S. |
| BenHH79 | Good evening all. |
| JoeRoss | I believe IB is strong. They are a clearing Futures Commission Merchant. (FCM) |
| JoeRoss | They've been in business for 30 years. |
| crosten | Joe, do you know the official website of Jim Rogers? |
| JoeRoss | Hi Ben. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: No, I've never seen it. |
| crosten | Where do you go to get information on what Jim Rogers has to say? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I don't really follow what he has to say. |
| JoeRoss | Occasionally someone else mentions him, and I read it there. |
| crosten | Do know him personally , he once live in texas right? |
| crosten | Where do you go to read? |
| JoeRoss | I don't know him and I know very little about him. He is considered a commodity guru. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I read most of what I read on the Internet. |
| crosten | You dislike to follow a guru, right? |
| crosten | His call on wheat is dead on. |
| BenHH79 | Hi Joe! I'd like to ask a question about writing options. What are you looking at first when you search for a market where you can build a fution? Do you filter option prices first or look at different markets for certain patterns? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: Some people call me a guru. But some people call me things that are a lot worse :D |
| crosten | I mean you dislike to follow a guru right ? |
| JoeRoss | Ben: The first thing I look for is overpricing in the option. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I am neutral on gurus. Some are good and some are not. I have followed some at various times. |
| crosten | What are some of the gurus you follow? |
| JoeRoss | Ben: Next I look at time. I don't want to sell anything having more than 15-20 days left until expiration. |
| JoeRoss | I use the Option Matrix to show me what I'm looking for. |
| BenHH79 | I'm using matrix options since a week, so I first search for the "green" ones and then take a closer look at these, right? |
| JoeRoss | Other filters are, 15% or more volatility, and at least $250 in premium. |
| JoeRoss | Ben: What is a "green" one? |
| BenHH79 | It's one of the first ten in the volatility ranking. |
| crosten | Joe, if you were to total your trades for the year in terms of options, spreads and outright contract, which percentage of the trades is the biggest? |
| JoeRoss | Ben: I haven't been able to get the ranking thing to work. So I just filter for the things I said above. |
| BenHH79 | I also read your book where you explained how to look for overpriced options, but with matrix option software I have to use the ranking. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: It would probably be outrights and spreads, because I traded them for the first 24 years, and still do trade them. The options were not available when I began trading. |
| crosten | I mean for this year, Joe . |
| BenHH79 | It's easy! but I don't know if I really get the overpriced options that way which you may find... |
| JoeRoss | Ben: Sometimes I simply scan through the list to see if I like something. |
| crosten | Joe do you let people see your trading diary during your 1 on 1 session? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: Probably outrights followed by options this year. |
| JoeRoss | Ben: Maybe you can show me how to make the ranking thing work. :) |
| JoeRoss | crosten: No. I don't show my trading diary. |
| BenHH79 | I considered selling 1530 puts in the S&P as there was a Ross Hook and seasonal support....but I'm glad I didn't!! |
| JoeRoss | Ben: Be very careful about selling puts in any stock index. I sell only calls on stock indexes. |
| BenHH79 | Why's that? |
| JoeRoss | Because stock markets can drop very fast and I saw what happened to put writers in 1987. |
| crosten | Stocks rise like an escalator and drop like a lift :) |
| crosten | I don't want to be offensive, but were you glad that you were in coma during Black Monday? |
| BenHH79 | Joe, do you make out any opportunity for option selling these days? |
| JoeRoss |
crosten: I was not glad or sad. I will never know what would have happened to me or how I would have traded. It can only be a wild guess on my part. I'm pretty sure I would not have been long, but would I have been short??? I don't know. |
| BenHH79 | the currencies are interesting. |
| JoeRoss | Ben: The best bets have been selling currency puts. |
| BenHH79 | But volatility has grown, I think. |
| BenHH79 | ups as=has. |
| crosten | What currency in particular? |
| crosten | All the currency are in trending mode except for the yen. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: euro and swiss franc puts. |
| BenHH79 | Do you usually think of combining seasonals and option expiration dates? |
| JoeRoss | Ben: Not usually, but sometimes. |
| crosten | Joe, get the options newsletter up and running. |
| JoeRoss | Well it is time to go. I have to get ready for my men's club meeting tonight. |
| crosten | Going to the bar, Joe? |
| JoeRoss | The next chat will be in December. |
| JoeRoss | The men's meeting will be in my house. |
| BenHH79 | That late?? :-( |
| crosten | A salutee. |
| JoeRoss | It is afternoon here, Ben. |
| BenHH79 | So, I wish to you all the best. |
| BenHH79 | No, I meant the next chat date !! |
| JoeRoss | But it will be 2AM in Europe when we meet. |
| BenHH79 | Yes. |
| JoeRoss | I will be in Europe for almost all of November. |
| JoeRoss | November 6-30. |
| crosten | Stay alive, Joe. |
| JoeRoss | I will do my best, crosten. |
| JoeRoss | December 6 is the next chat. |
| JoeRoss | Bye until then. |
| BenHH79 | Alright! bye joe! |
| BenHH79 | Thx for your time. |
| JoeRoss | You are welcome. |
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| sav | Hi all. |
| JoeRoss | sav: You came 1 hour late. I am just saying goodbye until December 6. |
| sav | Oops must have got my time wrong I guess its bye all then. |
| JoeRoss | Yes it is. |
| JoeRoss | See you then. |
| sav | ::smile |
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| zendre | Hi all! |
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| zendre | Where is Joe? |
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| zendre | Maybe he missed the info about the time shift? |
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| quester123 | hello Joe and all. |
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| fabio.it | anybody there? |
| quester123 | Yea fabio I'm wondering if the delay is because the clocks went back at least in the UK. |
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| fabio.it | oh yes... in U.S. the solar time (?) is 1 week later than in EU. |
| zendre | The problem is, that maybe Joe was waiting for us an hour ago. |
| SusanL | Yes. |
| zendre | I wrote him an e-mail. Maybe somebody should call them. |
| SusanL | In the U.S. in Texas it is 2.25PM now. |
| SusanL | He started the chat from 1PM to 2PM. |
| SusanL | We have our time change of 1 hour next Sunday. |
| fabio.it | Maybe Joe was here from 7.00 to 8.00, since until Saturday night there is 6 hours difference from Texas to ECT, not seven as usually. |
| fabio.it | But the date was at 8pm ECT time.... eh eh eh joe joe joe ;o) |
| SusanL | Sorry for that guys, Joe was online for 1 hour, we obviously didn't consider the time change in Europe already took place. |
| SusanL |
NEXT EURO CHAT will be December 6, after Joe returns from his seminar tour in Italy and Germany, and his presentation at the EXPO in Frankfurt/Germany. He will be gone all of November. |
| fabio.it | Hi Susan, send my greetings to joe and tell him we will meet in ravenna at the spread seminar. Tomorrow I will call Francesco for that. |
| fabio.it | Do you come too, Susan? |
| SusanL |
Joe was online today from 1PM US Central Time as usual which normally is 8PM in Germany. However because of the time change that already took place in Europe, we didn't consider that when he gave the chat. He was waiting for everybody to show up.... |
| SusanL | Fabio, no, I won't go to Italy this time but Joe's wife will come with him this time. |
| SusanL | She is a nice lady and you will be glad you meet her :) |
| BenHH79 | Susan? May I ask you what's your relationship to Joe? |
| fabio.it | I'm sure about that, but I would meet you too... but you have freshly married!!! |
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| SusanL | Ben, I work for Joe as his Marketing Director. |
| BenHH79 | Ah, alright. |
| SusanL | But he is also a dad to me :) |
| crosten | Joe here. |
| JoeRoss | I came back. |
| SusanL | I asked Joe to come back in case you guys have any questions |
| SusanL | So you better shoot off those questions or Joe has to say goodbye again. Sorry for the problem with the time change. We got that wrong. |
| JoeRoss | The problem is that in the U.S. we are still on daylight savings time. |
| JoeRoss | In Europe I think you have already changed. |
| fabio.it | Yes one week ago. |
| JoeRoss | Last year the U.S. started doing it later. |
| crosten | Joe for this year what is the 1 trade that you took that is the most profitable ? |
| fabio.it | Joe, can I subscribe for the spread seminar next week? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I really don't know. |
| JoeRoss | fabio: Yes you can. |
| fabio.it | Ok. Then we will meet. Tomorrow I will call Francesco. |
| SusanL | Joe, do you know of a good book on Mutual Funds? |
| JoeRoss | Susan: No I don't. |
| crosten | Joe, what guru do you follow? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: None at this time. |
| fabio.it | Joe IS a guru. |
| JoeRoss | Guys I have a visitor. So I will have to leave. |
| JoeRoss | I will be back for the next chat on December 6. |
| JoeRoss | On Tuesday I will leave for Europe and be in Italy on Wednesday. |
| JoeRoss | Bye for now. |
| fabio.it | See you, ciao... bye to all. |
| fabio.it | ciao susan |
Next EURO Chat with
Joe Ross:
Thursday, December 6, 2007
Time: 8:00 - 9:00 P.M., European Central Time (Berlin, Paris, Rome)
COME BACK WITH YOUR TRADING QUESTIONS & COMMENTS!
