Euro Chat with Joe Ross
Chat log from: Wednesday, February 27, 2008
| SusanV joined. | |
| Lola joined. | |
| crosten joined. | |
| Lola | Hi everybody |
| crosten | Interesting times in the market now |
| Lola | Where is everybody from? |
| JoeRoss joined. | |
| crosten | Hey Joe. |
| JoeRoss | Hey hey! |
| crosten | I am sure u are happy with your euro position? |
| JoeRoss | Yes and also with my Swiss Franc position. |
| crosten | Early in the month when we are at 1.44, i ask u whether we can reach 1.5, your forecast came true, Joe . |
| crosten | Ha ha! |
| crosten | Good call. |
| JoeRoss | Yes, but a little sooner than I thought. |
| crosten | Would you say we are in an established trend in the euro or just a breakout of a range ? |
| JoeRoss | I hate to think about what might happen tomorrow when all those reports come out. |
| crosten | What reports Joe? There is only GDP tomorrow? |
| JoeRoss | It depends on your view. Long term, euro is in an established trend. Short to medium term not yet. |
| JoeRoss | GDP is enough to move the market |
| YV joined. | |
| JoeRoss | But I think there are even more. I will look. |
| YV | Hi. |
| crosten | Would you take a traders trick if it happens in a few days to come on the EUR and AUD Joe? |
| JoeRoss | If not tomorrow then the next day. |
| crosten | Or are we just overextended? |
| crosten | No more major reports Joe. GCP tomorrow, and PCE Friday. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I'm already long the euro. But the AUD is definitely worth a try. AUD and CHF will soon hit parity with the dollar. |
| JoeRoss | Hi YV. |
| SusanV | Lola, where are you from? I am from Texas but nationality is German. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I think we will see some major profit taking after this week, but with the reports that are due out the rest of the week it doesn't look good for the dollar. |
| Lola | I'm Swiss. |
| crosten | Do u fear intervention on the euro Joe? What's your target for the euro? |
| SusanV | Hi YV |
| YV | Joe, Easy Bond is on track again? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: Still to come personal income, personal spending, and Michigan sentiment this week + Purchasing mangers PMI |
| crosten | Joe, did u place a buy stop at 1.50? prices lasted through 1.50 and straight to 1.5030 in less than 2 min, i saw it, Joe . |
| quester123 joined. | |
| JoeRoss | Whatever Lola wants, Lola gets..... |
| Lola | Joe, where should one start if I like to trade futures but have no idea about it? |
| crosten | Yes , those reports are not major reports, from my observation. The market does not tend to react to those reports, but who knows. |
| SusanV | Welcome Quester123. |
| YV | Speaking of the euro, i was long on the congestion yesterday 1 hour before the blast, and got out due to my stop and missed the move. |
| JoeRoss | YV: Yes I noticed. 2 winners in a row for Easy Bond..Easy Bond is back above water. Good trading again with original parameters. |
| crosten | Hey lola i am sure u are happy with your Swiss franc. |
| Lola | Oh I'm fine, haha |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I believe you. But remember I am long euro, long term, so I was already in it. Same with Swiss Franc. |
| quester123 | Hello Susan Joe and all. |
| SusanV | Lola, are you a day trader? What do you do? |
| JoeRoss | Lola: Start with the Futures Beginner's course on our website. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: When markets are volatile, they react to even the most minor reports. |
| Sauff joined. | |
| SusanV | Yes, that's one of Joe's best courses. |
| crosten | Joe what is your target for the euro? It can't go up forever Joe? |
| JoeRoss | YV: Missing the trade happens to us all. |
| Lola | And general information? I can't afford to take a course right now, just got the taxes. |
| crosten | Jim Rogers says that we can see a dollar rally this year? |
| JoeRoss | Hi quester. |
| SusanV | If you are signed up to the Chart Scan Newsletter, you got a coupon for $20 off the Futures Beginners course. Only valid until Friday this week. |
| JoeRoss | Hi Sauff. |
| Sauff | Hi Joe. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I don't have a target for the euro. I can't even give you an educated guess. |
| crosten | Is there a possibility of intervention on the euro Joe? |
| JoeRoss | I do feel strongly that ECB will not cut interest rates this next time around. |
| crosten | Yes info numbers were good. |
| crosten | yesterday's move was caused by info, Donald Khon and the poor economy numbers. |
| JoeRoss | Lola: Start reading the information that is on the exchange websites. There is a lot there. |
| SusanV | Lola, sign up for the weekly Chart Scan Newsletter and get the free ebooks on The Law of Charts and Traders Trick Entry. |
| quester123 | Joe, the bonds are quite volatile at the moment would you anticipate this continuing from Monday? Is the change in part to entice daytraders? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: Jim Rogers is right. Sooner or later traders have to buy back to take profits on their short dollar positions. |
| JoeRoss | Then it will rally. |
| YV | Joe, if u go with a trading method setup but then u see a law of charts signal that goes the opposite way, would u still go with the method? |
| Lola | Ok, thanks. What futures broker could you recommend? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I would rather expect the PPT to come to the rescue of the dollar, but so far they haven't intervened. |
| JoeRoss | But there is always the possibility of intervention on any currency or in any market. |
| crosten | I follow Jim Rogers calls, his calls are good for the long term. |
| JoeRoss | I was talking to one of your countrymen in Malaysia and he said that the govt. always is intervening in the palm oil market. |
| crosten |
Joe, a question on oil, people says that because of the weak dollar oil is rallying because oil is priced in dollars, if oil is not priced in dollars and the dollar weakens, will it have any effect on oil? |
| crosten | Yes, yes price controls. |
| JoeRoss | quester: I think bond traders are nervous about the change in the tick size, plus they are seeing a lot of crazy stuff, like roaring inflation and the FED still cutting interest rates. |
| crosten | It is pure speculation here Joe, right out in the supermarket people are buying palm oil right of the shelf and speculating! |
| JoeRoss | YV: I wouldn't go if there was a conflict. That's why the methods are discretionary. |
| JoeRoss | Lola: Please send me an email at Brokers Reference on our website. |
| JoeRoss | I will send you the name of the broker we use. |
| crosten | Joe, i read a report that we could see a rally in palm oil, as palm oil can be substitute for bean oil. |
| Lola | Ok, I will. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I think OPEC will go to a basket of currencies. I don't think they will entirely abandon the dollar. If they did, Bush might do something really irrational. |
| crosten | Hey Joe, u know a trader in Malaysia? |
| Hrasa joined. | |
| SusanV | Hi Hrasa. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: There is also canola oil. Bean oil has other substitutes. My wife uses coconut oil. |
| crosten | They say palm oil is the cheapest. |
| Hrasa | Hi all! |
| Lola | I prefer olive oil. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: he made first contact this week. |
| SusanV | Lola, me too. |
| JoeRoss | Hi Hrasa |
| quester123 | Joe, have you looked at binary betting pro and con? |
| crosten | Joe, is your friend in malaysia a trader? Is he your apprentice? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: Price is not everything when it comes to oil. It has to have the characteristics you need. |
| JoeRoss | Lola: Me too, I love olive oil. But my wife says coconut oil holds up better in cooking. So we use both, and also macadamia nut oil, and grapeseed oil. |
| JoeRoss | quester: No I haven't looked at it. I really have a lot on my plate these days. |
| crosten | Hey lola, is chocolate getting expensive in Switzerland? |
| Lola | A bit more expensive. |
| crosten | Hey Joe, are u bullish on cocoa, i see an established trend! |
| JoeRoss | crosten: He is a trader, but I just met him. I can't even remember his name, but it was a Chinese name. |
| Lola | Interesting point about the cooking. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I am bullish on all commodities. |
| Lola | Olive oil in Switzerland is cheap, compared to other oils. |
| nathan joined. | |
| JoeRoss | Hi nathan |
| crosten | I have feeling cocoa could be a star performer this year Joe? What commodities do you think would be a star performer this year Joe? |
| nathan | Hi Joe and everyone. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I don't know the parameters that define a star performer. |
| nathan | Joe, do you think the bond market will change due to different pricing? |
| JoeRoss | I just think commodities will all continue to rise in 2008. |
| crosten | Best performer Joe? |
| JoeRoss | nathan: Yes, it has to undergo some changes. For example, not being able to get $31.25/tick will push some traders to other markets. |
| Lola | 1 gallon car gas costs about 6.5 us dollar in Switzerland. |
| YV | Which market will they go to, Joe? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I don't know which one will be the best performer, but I certainly would not rule out any of them. |
| JoeRoss | YV: They could go to the notes. |
| YV | How much is a tick there? |
| quester123 | Joe, on the zb after the pit start would you say there was a decent 123 high trade available today on the 10 min ( if you can see a chart). |
| JoeRoss | YV: Now it will be the same as the bonds for the 10 year note. |
| JoeRoss | They will both tick the same. |
| JoeRoss | So why even bother with the bonds? 15.625/tick. |
| crosten | Joe, do you have any strangle on the euro? |
| YV | What will u do? will u still trade them? |
| crosten | Joe, are u going to quit trading the bonds when to changes to half tick? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: no euro strangle. |
| JoeRoss | YV: I might use the bonds to offset the notes if I get in trouble. :-) I will have to see if the liquidity holds up in the bonds. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: read my answer to YV. |
| YV | So why move to notes if its the same tick? |
| JoeRoss | quester: That was a very nice 1-2-3 low. You don't see a lot of those in the bonds these days in the 10 minute chart.. |
| JoeRoss | YV: I would move for the liquidity. Notes have been more liquid than bonds since a few years. |
| YV | I see. |
| crosten | Did you make any day trade in the currency market today and yesterday Joe? |
| YV | quester do u mean the 123 at approximate 10 o'clock? |
| quester123 | Low or high Joe? I got stopped out on a five ticks on the bar that blew down. |
| JoeRoss | I was looking at the 1-2-3 low. |
| nathan | Am i right that the tick change is from 1st march? |
| JoeRoss | nathan: it goes into effect March 3. |
| crosten | Joe, when will you liquidate your euro position Joe? Do you expect it to go higher than where we are now? |
| quester123 | No YV the 10 min chart of the ZB just after the pit open |
| JoeRoss | quester: The 1-2-3 high was very nice too. |
| JoeRoss | Also a nice Rh on the way down. |
| YV | There was a 123 between 9:30 and 11:15 correct Joe? |
| YV | 15 minute chart. |
| JoeRoss |
crosten: When I liquidate it, I hope it won't matter to me if its higher or lower, I will liquidate it when I see the euro no longer moving higher. Then I will switch to a currency that is gaining on the dollar, or the currency of any place I choose to live. |
| JoeRoss | Maybe Texas will revolt from the US and we will have our own money :-) |
| crosten | Are u going to change your country Joe? |
| JoeRoss | Correct quester. |
| nathan | I didn´t look at the notes yet, does the chart picture differ much from the bonds, or is the trading rage different? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: if it were up to me, I would have done it long ago, but I have responsibilities to a lot of people I love and want to be near. |
| YV | Right after cashing Easy Bond i could have go long on that 123 low and double my income for today. |
| JoeRoss | nathan: They are almost twins. |
| JoeRoss | Notes and bonds trade very much alike. |
| quester123 | Joe, do you find you're spoiled for choice with trades at the moment with all the volatility around? |
| crosten | Where would your country of choice be Joe? |
| nathan | So there is not a huge difference just because of ticks being different. |
| JoeRoss | quester: I have no problem finding trades. My problem is which one to take. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: Panama. |
| JoeRoss | nathan: Both are interest rate contracts; 10 year and 30 year. |
| crosten | Why Panama? My guess is because its a commodity country right? |
| JoeRoss | They will usually look alike, but at times the spread varies a lot. |
| nathan | Which notes do you mean 2 year or 5 year or 10 year? 10 year twins to zb? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: Panama is not a commodity country at all. It is a financial country. |
| JoeRoss | It's a lot like Switzerland, only much warmer. |
| JoeRoss | Panama is a huge banking center. But like Switzerland it has terrible land. Not much is grown in Panama, but a lot of revenue from the canal. |
| nathan | What about diseases in Panama? |
| JoeRoss | nathan: 10 year notes. I never even look at the other ones. |
| crosten | What do u mean by terrible land Joe, the ground is not fertile? |
| JoeRoss | nathan: No more than anywhere else. |
| JoeRoss | It is a very modern place. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: It is mountainous. |
| JoeRoss | The Swiss grow grapes and the Panamanians probably grow some bananas. |
| JoeRoss | It is not a desirable piece of land, so no one wants to invade it. |
| crosten | What is panama currency? |
| JoeRoss | Besides, every crook in the world has money in Switz, Panama, Dubai, and Hong Kong. |
| nathan | Do you expect gold to correct in near future? |
| crosten | Ha ha! |
| JoeRoss | crosten: US dollars are freely spendable and available, and so is their Peso. |
| crosten | Hey joe do you see gold at 1000 in 2 weeks time. |
| JoeRoss | nathan: I expect every market to correct sooner or later. |
| crosten | I guess i have to pay panama a visit. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I won't see it until it gets there. Then everyone will see it including me. |
| JoeRoss | You can retire there on $500/month. |
| crosten | New low on Swiss. |
| nathan | How much is their inflation? |
| crosten | Joe, when a currency is making new high at the same time, swiss, euro, aud , does that mean its correlation is strong? |
| JoeRoss | nathan: very low inflation. Plus they have a 20 year full employment project to double the size of the Canal. |
| crosten | Does panama have broadband speed? |
| JoeRoss | crosten: I don' t think it has anything to do with them being correlated. They are all going up because the dollar is going down and their currencies are not tied to the dollar. |
| JoeRoss | crosten: It is a completely modern city. They have everything just like in the U.S. |
| JoeRoss | It is a major world banking center. |
| JoeRoss | The Chinese control the canal. |
| crosten | The chinese? |
| JoeRoss | You can buy a beautiful U.S. style home from a U.S. builder and live just like in the U.S. |
| JoeRoss | crosten the Hutchinson company out of Hong Kong, manages and controls the canal. |
| JoeRoss | It's time for me to go. |
| crosten | li ka shing |
| JoeRoss | See y'all next week |
| YV | Bye Joe |
| Lola | Bye |
| YV | Bye everyone |
| JoeRoss | Come again, Lola |
| JoeRoss | Y'all come back too. |
| Lola | Alright |
| nathan | bye, |
| JoeRoss | You can learn a lot here, Lola |
| nathan | Good trades. |
| nathan | To ya´ll |
| JoeRoss | Happy trading. |
| Lola | I'll try, I have family. |
| JoeRoss | I think we all have families. |
| JoeRoss | Good night. |
| Hrasa | Bye all |
| Lola | bye all |
Next EURO Chat with
Joe Ross:
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Time: 8:00 - 9:00 P.M., European Central Time (Berlin, Paris, Rome)
COME BACK WITH YOUR TRADING QUESTIONS & COMMENTS!
