Euro Chat with Joe Ross
Chat log from: Wednesday, June 11, 2008
| Joy joined. | |
| SusanV joined. | |
| SusanV | chat starts in 8 minutes. Hi Joy :) |
| Joy | Hi Susan, how are you? No trouble waiting... I just like to log in early in case I run into problems again and need to reinstall Java. |
| JoeRoss joined. | |
| Joy | Good afternoon Joe! How are you? Hope you got over the cold well. |
| ron joined. | |
| JoeRoss | Hi Joy, everyone. |
| JoeRoss | I'm fine. Running up and down the stairs. I'm mostly over the cold. |
| ron | Can you comment on the oil market, crude move 9 bucks on last friday? |
| ron | Is that market manipulation? |
| Joy | Excellent, Joe! Glad to hear you are getting better. |
| JoeRoss |
ron: Sure. The Oil market is definitely being manipulated. Most of it is coming from the hedge funds and the commodity funds. There is nothing in the fundamentals to support the current level of oil prices. A good friend of mine who is in the business says the same thing. |
| ron | Great info, people are saying the rise in crude is due to strong demand is that misleading? Are you short oil right now? |
| Joy | Joe: Even though fundamentals don't support the price level, the congestion at the high range of the large price bar seems to indicate strength. Does it not? |
| ron | How much are you paying for gas at the pump? |
| JoeRoss |
ron: To say it is demand is misleading. Oil is currently overpriced. However, I would not dare to be short just yet. A lot more manipulation is still ahead, and according to the Russian oil and gas giant Gazprom, they are expecting oil to move to $250 a barrel some time in 2009. That means $10/gallon gasoline if they are right. |
| JoeRoss | $3.93/ gallon here in the Austin, TX area. |
| Joy | $250! That will break a lot of industries, if not most. |
| Joy | We pay $4.03 in the east coast. |
| ron | That's a lot u are paying, Joy. |
| JoeRoss |
Joy: That last bar does indicate strength. Yes, $250 will change the world. Currently there are people having to choose between food and the cost of fuel to get to work. Some are even borrowing from their employers so they can buy gasoline to get to work. |
| paola joined. | |
| JoeRoss | Hi paola |
| paola | Hi Joe! I'm fine and you? |
| Joy |
Joe: That is scary considering oil can easily double in a year if the Russian company is right. All the middle-income workers will all of a sudden become working poor, and all the poor not able to survive. The economic and political structure can be tested. |
| Joy | Hi Paola! |
| JoeRoss | Doing fine, paola. |
| paola | Hi Joy. |
| Joy | Joe: That is to not consider the subsequent impact on food and other commodity prices. |
| JoeRoss |
Joy: Rising prices is why some are saying we will have the mother of all depressions by 2010. The poor are not going to lay down and die, they will begin rioting, looting, and killing to save themselves. There will be chaos and no doubt marshall law. |
| Joy | Joe: I am depressed already :) |
| JoeRoss | Depressions have an interesting effect on prices. Depressions eventually bring prices down. |
| JoeRoss | When no one can pay higher prices, prices have to fall. It is possible for OPEC to price itself out of the market. |
| JoeRoss | I have some interesting articles about oil, but I'm waiting for confirmation from my friend who is in the oil business. |
| JoeRoss | If he says they are correct I will post them in my online forum. |
| ron | Which website do you go to read about the oil market? |
| Joy |
Joe: What can we even prepare for such an outlook? I know you mentioned in the last chat you will be starting a newsletter as a solution. But if oil does go to $250, can we even prepare for such magnitude? |
| JoeRoss | ron: I don't go to websites as a rule. But I receive a lot of information from contacts around the world. They come via email. |
| JoeRoss | Joy: Yes we can prepare. Today I wrote the sales copy for the newsletter. Once it is edited, it will go out to all our subscribers. |
| Tatiana joined. | |
| JoeRoss | In the letter I told exactly what I'm willing and able to do. And what I'm not going to do. |
| JoeRoss | It will go out to everyone I can think of to send it to. |
| ron | Buying solar panels. |
| Joy | Joe: Awesome! Thank you so much! |
| JoeRoss | Solar panels will surely help. |
| Joy | Hi Tatiana! |
| Tatiana | Good evening for all |
| JoeRoss | In South Africa I had a huge solar array, and 3 wind generators. We were producing enough electricity to handle a small community. |
| ron | I hope the high price of oil will spur the further RnD of alternative energy. |
| JoeRoss |
ron: It is already happening. There is a company here in Texas that has found a way to produce huge quantities of oil from algae. Don't quote me on this, but in a very small space, maybe 5 miles square they could produce enough oil to satisfy the entire world. |
| ron | What is the thing that separates successful traders and unsuccessful ones? |
| Joy | Wow! We need those algae now :) |
| paola | I will put 3 Kw solar panels on my roof. I'm building my house. |
| JoeRoss | Hi Tatiana. |
| SusanV | Hi Tatiana and everybody else. |
| ron | That's great, there's a theory out there that there are bacteria deep down the earth which are producing oil. |
| JoeRoss | ron: Discipline and self-control. |
| ron | How about luck? |
| JoeRoss | paola: Good for you. Excellent, in fact. |
| paola | Joe Thanks! |
| SusanV | Joe, and the right knowledge and know - how to apply it also separates successful from unsuccessful traders, wouldn't you agree? |
| SusanV | And sufficient money, too. |
| JoeRoss | ron: luck is not what separates successful from unsuccessful traders. |
| paola | Joe: how long is it for a beginner to became a professional trader with the correct discipline and self-control? |
| JoeRoss | SusanV: Those things are also true. "It takes money to make money," applies quite a bit to trading. Also the most knowledgeable have the advantage of the less knowledgeable in trading. |
| JoeRoss | paola: The average is said to be 3-5 years. |
| ron | Bernanke and Paulson have been talking up the dollar lately, is Bernenake signaling the market is about to increase rates? |
| ron | How much trading capital did you start trading with? |
| Tatiana | Hi - I want to ask about trading spreads. I want to trade them but I don't know where I can find appropriate program tools for that. |
| ron | tatiana, where are you from? Russia? |
| SusanV |
Tatiana, send an email to Andy Jordan, our professional Spread Trader, he can help you with those questions: andy@tradingeducators.com |
| Joy |
Joe: Following Ron’s thought… What if EU also raises rates – perhaps even ahead of the Fed – as their latest meeting indicates? Will not it be death of dollars? The temporary rally will be gone before we know. |
| SusanV | Did you go to www.spread-trading.com?? |
| JoeRoss | ron: Bernanke is talking out of both sides of his mouth, which means he is not signaling anything at all. |
| JoeRoss | ron: I started with $5,000, which today would be more like $50,000+ |
| fabio.it joined. | |
| paola | Hi Fabio. |
| JoeRoss | Tatiana: Are you looking for a charting program? I don't know what you mean by a "proper tool." |
| fabio.it | Hi paola, how are you? |
| Joy | Ciao Fabio my friend! |
| fabio.it | Hiiiii Joy |
| Tatiana | Yes, I am looking for this. |
| paola | I'm fine. Ti scriverò una e-mail. |
| JoeRoss | Joy: You will never see the death of the dollar. You will be forced into ameros before that ever happens. |
| fabio.it | paola-si va bene. |
| ron | Why do people say that $1000 50 years ago is worth like $10000 today, is it due to interest rates? Please explain. |
| fabio.it | Joy, all ok? |
| Joy |
Joe: Ah, yes, the dreaded ameros... Remember you said Corn was hot last Wednesday? With Indiana under the flood, corn seems to have brought the rest of the grain group all – even soybean! Do you think the trend will last a while because the new crop is in question? |
| fabio.it | Hi everybody. |
| Joy | Fabio my friend, I am very well. Thank you! I hope you have been well too. CL was indeed in congestion after Friday. |
| JoeRoss |
ron: 1000 50 years ago and 10000 today is due to inflation. The inflation is caused by governments printing money. If you or I printed money it is called counterfeiting. If the government prints money it is called "injecting liquidity." |
| marsh joined. | |
| fabio.it | Joy - yes, how i said to you last week, after the long daily bar i believe in a consolidation... we will see what happens. |
| JoeRoss |
If you guys want to read a fascinating article: take a look at this link when the chat is over: http://www.galacticawatercooler.com/2008/04/02/algae-its-not-just-whats-for-dinner/ |
| JoeRoss | Hi Marsh. |
| marsh | Hi Joe. |
| SusanV | Joe, is it only this very short article on fuel? |
| JoeRoss | When you read the article about Galactica Water Cooler, also realize that you can grow vegetables in exactly the same way. |
| Joy | Hi Marsh! |
| SusanV |
quote: "Texas company Valcent Products has a plan for a renewable-energy future: grow algae, then extract its oil — up to 50% of the pond scum’s weight — to create biodiesel. They’ve turned $5 million in investment money into a vertical “pond” called the Vertigrow Lab to learn how to grow the green stuff more effectively — and determine which variants work best for producing fuel for automobiles, aircraft, etc." |
| SusanV | But Joe, wouldn't the automobile industry need to make special cars who take that kind of fuel? |
| JoeRoss |
Right now they don't quite know how to extract the oil. There is also the danger that the company will be bought out by big oil and then it will disappear. If what Valcent is doing would actually work, it would put big oil out of business. |
| ron | Joe, do you have the wii fi? |
| JoeRoss | SusanV. There is also a link to a CNN article there. |
| SusanV | Oh ok, thanks... |
| JoeRoss | SusanV. We already run cars on diesel. They may have to make a minor adjustment to the way the car uses the diesel but that's all. |
| JoeRoss | ron: If you are asking me if I have wi fi, the answer is yes. Otherwise i don't know what you are asking. |
| fabio.it | Will it be the possibility to upgrade this chat in video conference in the future as technology evolves? |
| ron | http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v31qxrXsxv0 |
| Tatiana | I think alternative energy was found but it is kept secret because of big money involved in oil. |
| ron | Check that out. |
| ron | It's funny. |
| SusanV | Please read this after the chat is over if you are interested, that would be this link to CNN about renewable energy: http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/science/04/01/algae.oil/index.html |
| JoeRoss |
fabio: I have no intention of upgrading the chat. I don't want it to have audio, because everyone will be trying to talk at one time. I don't want it to have video, because then I would have to put on clothes to do the chat :-) |
| fabio.it | ::laugh |
| Joy |
Joe: Another question… less interesting than renewable energy, I know. I was reading the Trading by Ross Hook book and saw you used the term ‘“strong basing action” on the chart…’ Could you please elaborate when you say strong basing action, do you mean the price bars extremely low or price bars congested in the low range for a significant period before moving up? |
| JoeRoss | Joy: Basing is a long consolidation at the end of a down move. |
| Joy | Joe: THANK YOU for the clarification for me! |
| marsh | We could be having a basing in the index futures today. |
| Joy | Marsh: Thank you! I will study the charts after close and keep a look out for it :-) |
| fabio.it | Joe, have you harvested your lettuce crop? |
| JoeRoss | fabio: Yes, I have. |
| ron | Is the stock index in a down trend or in a range in your own opinion? |
| JoeRoss | I have only 2 plants that are still growing. |
| Joy | Joe: That is terrible - must be the heat wave. |
| JoeRoss | ron: That depends on the time frame of the chart. |
| ron | Daily charts. |
| JoeRoss | Weekly charts we are in the middle of a consolidation. |
| JoeRoss | Daily charts we have an established down trend. |
| Joy | Emini NASDAQ seems to be more in congestion for daily chart. |
| JoeRoss | Joy: Actually, the problem is bad soil. I thought I was getting 6 yards of fertile soil. Instead I got 6 yards of sterile clay. |
| marsh | Did I misuse the term "basing", when I saw a downtrend in the daily chart and a congestion on the 15 min chart? |
| JoeRoss | Joy: True about congestion, but not basing because it is not at the end of a downtrend. |
| fabio.it | Joe, I have no questions to do. What means it? I am a trader now? ::laugh |
| JoeRoss | marsh: Which market? |
| marsh | Emini Russell. |
| JoeRoss | fabio: Yes, now you are a trader who knows all the answers ;-) |
| fabio.it | I was joking. |
| JoeRoss | fabio: So was I. |
| JoeRoss | marsh: ER2 is not basing. The basing action was back in Jan.-Mar. |
| fabio.it | I see well wheat july... it seems to begin an uptrend. |
| JoeRoss | Daily chart that is. |
| JoeRoss | fabio, Wheat looks very strong after building a base. |
| fabio.it | Last year's spread july-march made a big plunge in september/october and a strong uptrend from november... |
| fabio.it | I hope it will repeat it this year. |
| fabio.it | Joe_ in fact now i'm waiting a ross hook to enter long on the daily chart. |
| JoeRoss | fabio: From a trading point of view that is a nice hope. From an eating point of view, it is not so great. It means a lot of people will be hungry. |
| JoeRoss | fabio: You already missed a TTE on the first hook. |
| fabio.it | Good job fabio! |
| JoeRoss | Well it's after 2 and I have a lot to do. |
| JoeRoss | See you next week. |
| JoeRoss | Bye |
| fabio.it | bye |
| Tatiana | Bye |
Next EURO Chat with
Joe Ross:
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Time: 8:00 - 9:00 P.M., European Central Time (Time Zone: Berlin, Paris, Rome)
COME BACK WITH YOUR TRADING QUESTIONS & COMMENTS!
