Euro Chat with Joe Ross
Chat log from: Wednesday, June 18, 2008
| marsh joined. | |
| SusanV joined. | |
| marsh | Yo sue. |
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| SusanV | hi Marsh. |
| marsh | The one and only. |
| SusanV | Good to have you at the chat. |
| marsh | Thank you. |
| SusanV | Joe is coming on in a minute. |
| JoeRoss joined. | |
| JoeRoss | Hi Y'all |
| marsh | Yee Ha, Joe is here. |
| SusanV | Hey Joe |
| SusanV | Hope you got the papers signed alright. ;-) |
| JoeRoss | The papers are signed. |
| JoeRoss | I've been tutoring with a student from Africa all morning, and will be again after the chat. |
| JoeRoss | Anyone who doesn't want to travel can get private 3 days of tutoring online. |
| marsh | Pretty good. |
| JoeRoss | Anywhere in the world. |
| JoeRoss | You can get on and stay as long as you want. |
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| JoeRoss | Hi Martin. |
| martin28 | Hello. |
| martin28 | How are you in these days? |
| JoeRoss | I'm fine. How are you? |
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| marsh | Hi Joy. |
| JoeRoss | Hi Joy. |
| YV joined. | |
| JoeRoss | Hi YV. |
| Joy | Hi Joe! Thank you for the writing! |
| martin28 | hmmm...I'm struggling with my trading business. :-) |
| YV | Hi everyone. |
| Joy | Hi Marsh! So glad to see you! |
| YV | Joe some questions. |
| JoeRoss | martin: Maybe you would like to take some one-on-one training ;-) |
| JoeRoss | YV, sure! Go ahead. |
| martin28 | :-) |
| YV | With your experience what would u do? |
| YV | Let's say i have a 12 ticks stop and objectives of 4 , 10 , and trail limit on 3 contracts trading the good old RH and TTE. |
| martin28 | Joe, what techniques do you use for day trading now? |
| YV | However, once u lose on your first trade of the day, will u continue trading? u need almost 2 winners to get even. |
| JoeRoss | I use the 5 setups I teach at the seminars and in private tutoring. |
| JoeRoss | YV: I will make no more than 3 trades per session. If I lose on 2 of them, I stop trading. |
| JoeRoss | If I have 1 winner I stop trading. All I'm looking for is 1 winner net. |
| YV | But let's say u have a bad day and u get 2 losses, now you'll have to make 4 consecutive wins. Does this impact u in some way (psychologically i mean)? |
| JoeRoss | YV: If I have 2 losses, I stop. It's not my day. |
| YV | Also , u have 1 loss , 1 win that does not cover your loss, will u try another one? |
| JoeRoss | YV: If I have 1 win and 1 loss, I will trade one more trade. |
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| JoeRoss | Hi Quester. |
| YV | Ok, and now again for the issue that keeps my mind busy so much, shouldn't we look for trades that the target is more than the stop loss? (strategy i mean) cause this way even if we lose 50% we still win? |
| quester123 | Hello Joe and all. |
| JoeRoss | YV: If that is what makes you comfortable then do it that way. But personally, I make many trades where the stop loss is greater than my objective. I just make sure my winning percentage is high. |
| JoeRoss | YV: If I know I can make 10 ticks 90% of the time, I can afford to lose 30 ticks 10% of the time. |
| YV | Ok, next issue. |
| JoeRoss | How do I know? By testing. |
| martin28 | Joe, how much you charge for one hour private tutoring? |
| YV | I know this is how i figure my stops as well, next question is regarding time stops. |
| JoeRoss | martin: Are you sure you want to know? It's $400/hour or $1500 a day from 9am - 4pm! I have never raised the price. Maybe I should. Inflation affects me, too. |
| YV | 15 min chart , do u get out after 7 min if u do not get your objective? |
| JoeRoss | YV: That's a tough one. I have to have studied that market to see how it trades. I may wait the entire 15 minutes. |
| JoeRoss | I really cannot make hard and fast rules about time stops. |
| YV | Ok, that was what i was thinking as well. |
| Joy |
Joe: Speaking of testing and staying with YV's thread, I notice you often say in your writing you'd look back 40 times for the same pattern. Is that your approximate 'statistical confidence level' for each pattern and timeframe of that market? I assume you'd increase the number if it is a more volatile market? |
| marsh |
I thought the way the time stop worked, if we are long, then after one bar, we should be seeing higher highs and higher lows, and a higher close. But I didn't think the objective had to be reached in one bar. Was I wrong? |
| JoeRoss | Joy: 40 incidents is going to give me a statistically valid number. That's all I'm looking for. |
| Joy | THANK YOU Joe! |
| JoeRoss | marsh: You are not wrong. The objective does not have to be reached in 1 bar. |
| YV | Ok, my next question is regarding testing my strategy (sorry for so many but i had a very good few months and a very very very bad 2 weeks). |
| Joy | Joe/Marsh: So if even 1 of the 3 in criteria is not met (e.g., not higher close), you would consider the trade not going your way and think about exiting? |
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| JoeRoss | Hi fabio. |
| fabio.it | Hi Joe, hi everybody. |
| fabio.it | Hi joy ;o) |
| marsh | If I was long, and had a bar open high and close low, I'd have a very tight stop. |
| Joy | Ciao Fabio friend! How are you? |
| JoeRoss | marsh: same here. |
| Joy | Thank you Marsh and Joe as always! |
| fabio.it | joe = trading for living = do you believe that someone (that has acquired discipline and self control) can successfully apply TLOC and TTE? |
| YV |
I will tell u what I have done, and u tell me what u think. I see the ES is making perfect TLOC formation for quite some time on 15 min chart. I checked 2 months back manually each trade and figured out I need 12 ticks stop and my objectives are 4, 10 and trail. However I do get out 80% wins, it's just that some of the wins have little profit. |
| JoeRoss | Everyone: I want to let you know ahead, I will be leaving 5 minutes early today. I will barely have time to say good bye. I will simply vanish. |
| fabio.it | Fine joy and you? |
| JoeRoss | fabio: Absolutely, YES! We have many who are doing exactly that. |
| fabio.it | You give me a wonderful news ;o) |
| YV |
But the catch 22 is this. I only get this 80% if i take each opportunity to trade, this means i can end up with 5 trades a day. What do u think? Is this crazy? Overtrading? |
| JoeRoss | YV: It tends towards overtrading. |
| fabio.it | It's what i will try to do from next September. |
| JoeRoss |
YV: I don't have a definitive answer for that situation. It's too much involved with personal style. For me 5 trades a day would be overtrading; for someone else that might be one-tenth of their normal trading. |
| marsh | YV: I'd switch from ES to ER2. |
| YV | Well ER is finished next month. |
| JoeRoss | marsh: Excellent idea. I know that things I do that work with ER2, just don't work with ES. ES doesn't have enough movement. |
| JoeRoss | YV: We don't know yet if ER2 is finished. It will depend on how many people move over to the ICE. |
| martin28 | I'm paper trading ER2. |
| marsh | I just think the 15 min ER2 chart is cleaner than the 15 min ES. |
| SusanV | ER2 = Emini Russell 2000. |
| SusanV | ES = Emini S&P. |
| martin28 | Yep. |
| fabio.it | joe = trading for living again = do you believe someone, as above, can gain an income every month (day trading), or may suffer some months losses inside the yearly gain? |
| JoeRoss | fabio: I have not had a losing month in many years. But I can only speak for myself. |
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| JoeRoss | But I have had some not so great months :-) |
| martin28 | Yes ER2 has a very good movements. |
| martin28 | To get 20 ticks from congestion. |
| JoeRoss | It's going to be interesting to see where the ER2 traders go. |
| JoeRoss | i wonder if the CME thinks they will go to the Small Cap 600????? |
| fabio.it | Joe - and for "they" you mentioned before (maybe they are more similar to me than you |
| YV | CL is also very fast. |
| Joy |
Joe: Are ER2 traders mostly individual day-traders? Or do commodity funds also trade them? If so, wouldn’t there be a huge volume to move elsewhere? |
| quester123 | Joe, you describe a method in Trading is a Business where you traded with only 1 contract but if you were comfortably in a trade how did you protect the position overnight? |
| marsh | speaking of CL, CLQ08 30 min chart had a wonderful breakout of a trading range then a TTE of a Rh today. |
| JoeRoss | Joy: ER2 is a stock index. Commodity funds won't trade a stock index. |
| fabio.it | Joe - and for "they" you mentioned before? (maybe they are more similar to me than you) |
| marsh | There are ETFs that trade the Russell 2000. They move twice as much as the index moves. |
| JoeRoss | Joy: I think there are a lot of individual traders in ER2, but I have no idea of how many. |
| Joy | Marsh: Thank you for the extra information! |
| ron | Are you and Adrienne Toghraie related in any way? |
| JoeRoss | quester: What market was mentioned in TIB? |
| Joy |
Joe: Thank you! I have another more generic question. Eurodollar: When June 09 daily chart had a huge drop while June 08 remains in established TR, what does it mean about short-term vs. long-term interest rate? Or does it tie to something else? |
| YV | Ok, Joe thanks for your answers, much appreciated. |
| YV | Good night All, I have to go. |
| JoeRoss | ron: are you asking me if I'm related to Adrienne? I am not. I only have been with her a few times. We became friends over the years. |
| JoeRoss | Joy: It indicates that traders think the FED will be raising interest rates. There is a roaring argument going on about that right now, but I suspect that it is all because of blah, blah by the FED |
| ron | How do you build confidence in trading? |
| Joy | Thank you Joe! Yes, blah blah is right - all air and no action :-) |
| fabio.it | Joe, what do you think about HGN08-HGU08? |
| JoeRoss | ron: By creating a trading plan and following it, you build confidence.. |
| ron | I am scared with losses, how do you cope with losses? |
| JoeRoss | fabio: I don't have a chart I can look at right now. I don't know what it looks like. But HGU may be illiquid. What is the volume, do you know? |
| quester123 | It was bean oil Joe, in Trading Is a Business. |
| JoeRoss | ron: Read Chart Scan on Friday. I deal with your question in the next issue: This coming Friday. |
| fabio.it | The volume is fair in the first half hour, than plunges. |
| fabio.it | quantities in bid / ask are often 2 -2 .... i didn't entered for that reason. |
| JoeRoss | quester: Back in the days before overnight trading, about the only people who traded bean oil were all in the U.S. You didn't have to worry about leaving a position in the market. I wouldn't do the same thing now. |
| ron | Were you scared when you first started to trade? |
| JoeRoss | fabio: Good! Smart move!! |
| JoeRoss | ron: Scared is putting it mildly. I was terrified. I was entirely on borrowed money with my house as collateral. |
| fabio.it | Thanks Joe, for the compliment. |
| ron | How did you deal with the fear? |
| JoeRoss | ron: I spent a lot of time on the toilet |
| ron | Are you serious? |
| JoeRoss | Only kidding. I just kept thinking about the rewards until the fear went away. I focused on what my life would be like if I succeeded. |
| fabio.it | ron - i had the same problem.... first i suggest you to trade smaller lots than you do..... second you have to find a trading plan in what you trust... test it... and than trade it. |
| ron | Do you know of any good source of trading education besides yourself? |
| JoeRoss | I know of 3: Me, Myself and I. I don't know of any others, but you could try reading Mark Douglas' two books. |
| JoeRoss | Bye everyone. I have to leave right now. |
| JoeRoss | Ciao. |
| fabio.it | ciao |
| quester123 | thanks Joe, bye all |
| fabio.it | JOYYY |
| SusanV | Joe is the one all the others try to imitate when it comes to trading education. |
| SusanV | So why not learn from the originator? |
| Joy | You are so right SusanV! |
| Joy | Marsh: I got to run and hope to see you on the chat tonight? |
| Joy | Ciao Fabio! |
| Joy | Our friend Paola is not here today - too bad. |
| SusanV | You are all welcome to ask more questions during Joe's chat tonight |
| fabio.it | Read email |
| SusanV | It's 8pm U.S. Central Time. |
| SusanV | In the Live Chat room. |
| Joy | Bye Susan and everyone! |
| marsh | Bye Joy. |
| fabio.it | bye everyone |
| SusanV | This is where you log onto tonight's chat: http://tradingeducators.com/studentsonly/LiveChat.html |
| SusanV | Thank you all for coming |
| SusanV | Come back! |
| fabio.it | ciao joy, buona serata |
| SusanV | bye everyone |
Next EURO Chat with
Joe Ross:
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Time: 8:00 - 9:00 P.M., European Central Time (Time Zone: Berlin, Paris, Rome)
COME BACK WITH YOUR TRADING QUESTIONS & COMMENTS!
