Chat with Joe Ross
Chat log from: Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Live Chat with Joe starts Tuesday at 8.00 PM U.S. Central Time! |
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| Gil | Hello Everybody |
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| JoeRoss | Chat starts in 3 minutes |
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| JoeRoss | Hi all |
| marc | Howdy Joe. |
| JoeRoss | Hi Marc |
| Gil | Hi Everybody! |
| JoeRoss | I will ask this later again, but can you name 5 principal commodity indexes? |
| marsh | goldman sax commodity index, dollar index, |
| JoeRoss | GSCI is correct but not DI. |
| JoeRoss | There are 4 more. |
| marc | CRB. |
| marsh | Do you mean an index that spans many commodities? |
| JoeRoss | CRB is correct |
| JoeRoss | Yes Commodity Indexes span more than one commodity. |
| marc | Isn't there a Reuters index? |
| JoeRoss | No Reuters. |
| marc | You must have us flatfooted! |
| JoeRoss | I guess so. |
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| JoeRoss | Here's another one: Can you name the 9 Futures Exchanges that operate in the U.S.A.? |
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| shamutooth | Hello all. |
| JoeRoss | Answers will be at the end of the chat :) |
| marc | Winnepeg, cbot, cme, kc, nybot, nymex, ice? |
| JoeRoss | Winnepeg is in Canada. |
| mhafner | Hi Joe!!! Can specific questions about the brazilian market be sent to you? |
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| marc | Thank you. |
| JoeRoss | The other 6 are correct, but there are 3 more. |
| Gil | Chicago Mercantile Exchange? |
| marsh | Dow-Jones-AIG Commodity Index. |
| Gil | Chicago Board of Trade? |
| marc | Add MGE. |
| JoeRoss |
mhafner: Yes, but I'm not sure I will know the answer to them. Brazilian questions are best sent to our partner in Brazil Rogerio Kirschbaum Visit our Brazilian Partner Website: http://tradingeducators.com.br/default.asp |
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| marsh | Rogers International Raw Materials Index. |
| JoeRoss | DJ AIG is correct. |
| JoeRoss | Rogers is correct. There's one more and it is a tough one. |
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| JoeRoss | MGE is correct |
| johngas | Hey Joe, what are your thoughts on effectiveness of 3 bar reversals? |
| marsh | There is a fund called PIMCO. |
| JoeRoss |
johngas: 3 bar reversals are fine if you are making money with them. It will depend on the market and time frame and your trade and money management. |
| marsh | Deutsche Bank Commodity Index. |
| JoeRoss | PIMCO is a fund, not an Index. |
| JoeRoss | The gold cup goes to Marsh. DBs Commodity Index. |
| marsh | I cheated. I did a google search. |
| JoeRoss | But there are still a few exchanges missing. |
| JoeRoss | Principal Commodity Indexes: CRB, GSCI, RICI (Rogers), AIG, DB LIQUID COMMODITY INDEX |
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| BenHH79 | Good evening @ all ! |
| marsh | USFE U.S. Futures Exchange. |
| JoeRoss | USFE is correct. |
| marsh | CCX Chicago Climate Exchange. |
| JoeRoss | marsh: It could be, if so, I did not know about that one. |
| JoeRoss | Can you trade on the CCX? |
| JoeRoss | I'll trade you one rain for one wind?? |
| Fernando | Joe, Can you explain the main difference between Swing Trade and Position Trade? |
| marsh | It's there for controlling or trading greenhouse gasses. |
| marsh | It's for big organizations. |
| mhafner | Joe....I don´t know if you might know the answer....but what would be a good strategy to go short on the IBOVESPA future index (INDFUT) right now? |
| JoeRoss |
Fernando: You can do both in any market at any time. There are traders who position trade during the trading day. However, usually position trading refers to holding overnight, whereas swing trade can be done intraday or overnight. |
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| JoeRoss | marsh: Isn't that the Carbon Exchange? |
| JoeRoss | mhafner: Let me take a look. |
| mhafner | Great! |
| BenHH79 | Joe, I have a question about seasonals, where may I get information like that from MRCI? Is there any other seller for seasonal information? |
| JoeRoss | mhafner: It will take me a few minutes, so be patient. |
| mhafner | Don't worry!!!! |
| marsh | There is an International Carbon Bank & Exchange. |
| JoeRoss | BenHH: At Trading Educators we have our own extensive library of seasonal trades. But you have to subscribe to Traders Notebook to get them. |
| Fernando | Joe, what is your feeling to go short on PETR4 (Petrobras - Brazil) now. |
| BenHH79 | I'm already a traders notebook subscriber. |
| marsh | There is a Carbon Mercantile Exchange. |
| JoeRoss | marsh: that was one I had in mind. |
| acman | When I get solar panels on my roof, Austin wants my carbon credit! |
| acman | That exchange might be a great trading area. |
| marc | Sort of like utility spreads? |
| JoeRoss | Fernando: Petrobas is definitely a short. |
| acman | We could set up an Enron type organization but use it to trade carbon credits. |
| marc | Correlate it to cloudy days. |
| JoeRoss | mhafner: bovespa index looks like a short to me. |
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| marsh | Reminds me of that old trading idea: if it's raining in Chicago, short grains. |
| JoeRoss | BenHH: We have more seasonal trade than MRCI, so stick with Traders Notebook because we have all the ones MRCI has and more. |
| Sherri | Hi Joe, Hi everyone. Sorry I came in late. |
| Fernando | Could you please give a little explanation about "go short?" |
| JoeRoss | Fernando: Petrobas dropped like a rock in the last 5 weeks. Go short means SELL. |
| BenHH79 | Yes, thanks, I already recognized, that in your Traders Notebook comes info I don't get from MRCI so I just wondered where else you collect your info. |
| JoeRoss | BenHH: I have been collecting seasonal trades for 50 years. Before MRCI was born :) |
| mhafner | Right, but based on a daily chart.....would you sell the future index right now on the losing of 53K or would you wait for some retracement to sell it higher? |
| JoeRoss | Hi Sherri: Long time no see. |
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| JoeRoss | mhafner, It would be a good idea to wait for a correction which will almost surely follow a move like the one today. |
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| Fernando | Joe, "go long" using the same analogy means BUY? |
| JoeRoss | Fernando: Yes, go long means buy. |
| BenHH79 | I know why I'm happy to go along with you, Joe! |
| JoeRoss | :D |
| Fernando | Joe, what is your feeling about DJI, continue down trend or reverse. |
| JoeRoss | Fernando: It is really difficult to know about the DJI, because of interference by the Federal Reserve through the Plunge Protection Team to hold the market up. |
| marc | Joe, from the list of exchanges earlier, do you have favorites or ones you don't like? |
| JoeRoss | At the moment DJI looks very sick, but I'm not sure if anything will be done to hold it up. |
| JoeRoss | marc: I don't like any of the New York exchanges. Chicago are best. |
| mhafner |
Joe....I'm reading a book right now called "The new market Wizards" they mention a lot about trading systems and kind of criticize the traditional indicators such as IFR, stochastics and so on...what's your point of view about that and what kind of different buy or signals these systems might have??? |
| JoeRoss | But here is the list of exchanges on which futures are traded: |
| JoeRoss | Commodity Exchanges: CBOT, CFE, CME, ICE, KCBT, NYBOT, NYMEX, COMEX, USFE |
| marsh | About the DJI. The fed and feds around the world put in billions of liquidity last week, and still it drops! |
| marsh | Isn't COMEX part of NYMEX, like IMM is part of CME? |
| JoeRoss | mhafner: I don't give any credibility to anything written in New Market Wizards. |
| mhafner | LOL |
| JoeRoss | marsh: Comex trades in the same building, but it is a separate exchange from NYMEX. |
| BenHH79 | Joe, another question: How do you keep an eye on price structure in the future markets? Do you know a simple way to get an overview? |
| mhafner | What about Come into my trading room by Elder, Alexander? |
| JoeRoss | COMEX has its own ruling board and they set their own fees. |
| JoeRoss | marsh: Liquidity isn't what stops a market fall. The way to stop a market fall is to buy the Index. |
| marsh | mhafner: Come into my parlor, said the spider to the fly. |
| JoeRoss | mhafner: Elder's book is the same as the spider saying to the fly "come into my parlor." |
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| johngas | Tell us what u really think :) |
| JoeRoss | johngas: About what? |
| johngas | Elder. |
| mhafner | So let me put the same question in a different way.....do you believe that the traditional technical analysis still works on any market? |
| JoeRoss |
johngas: Other people have told me that he is not a good trader. I believe he borrowed his triple screen trading system from "Trading by the Book," which I wrote before he introduced triple screening. |
| JoeRoss | mhafner: If you know how to use it, yes, TA will work in any market. |
| johngas | Ok. |
| JoeRoss | mhafner: People use it all the time and make money with it. I know several great traders who still trade with the same old stuff as before, but they adapt their management to the market. |
| mhafner | That might be because basically people's behavior have changed pretty much over the years??? |
| JoeRoss | marsh: I looked it up. Comex operates as a subsidiary of NYMEX, but it maintains its own website and has its own management. So the relationship is more like ICE and NYBOT. |
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| Fernando | Joe, when you trade you prefer stay on just one stock or split your money in more than one? |
| marsh | Well, NYMEX and COMEX sure as hell charge their own data fees. |
| JoeRoss | mhafner: People's behavior has not changed. Human nature is the same as it always has been, selfish, fearful, greedy, etc. |
| JoeRoss | What has changed is the nature of the markets. There are now tens of thousands more traders than there were ten years ago. |
| JoeRoss | Trading is now electronic. New exchange keep opening up which tends to dilute the markets. |
| JoeRoss | Many more changes, too numerous to mention. |
| hoot | When you say "dilute" Joe. Just how do you mean? For the good? worse? |
| JoeRoss | Fernando: When I trade stocks, I maintain at least 5 and usually up to 15. |
| BenHH79 | May an inverse price structure be enough to look for an technical entry point in that certain calendar spread? |
| marc | Joe, I just read a book by Ainsworth and he traded grains in the 1930's without stops profitably. Changed now huh? |
| JoeRoss | hoot: For worse. Example: Cotton, Orange Juice, Sugar, etc. are now traded at NYMEX and ICE. They were already thinly traded markets, now they are even thinner. |
| hoot | Thank you |
| JoeRoss | BenHH: Yes. Both a technical and a fundamental basis is there in inverse markets. |
| Sherri |
I know everyone has to figure out their stop losses for themselves. Having said that, what are the various kinds of stops people use? Like time stop, ratio to profit target, etc.? |
| JoeRoss |
marc: Yes the grain markets have undergone significant change. They used to be dominated by the commercial interests. Now the commercials are no longer trading profitably in the grains. I have had two traders here, one from Archer, Daniel's Midland and the other from Cargill and both of them have told me they no longer are making money trading futures. |
| JoeRoss | The commodity markets are now dominated by the commodity funds. |
| marc | If the commercials can't do it; how do we? |
| JoeRoss | Sherri: % of account, fixed dollar amount, fixed tick or point amount. |
| Sherri | Thanks. |
| JoeRoss |
marc: The commercials made their money by controlling the markets. We had to run between their legs and follow what they did. Now the funds dominate the markets. We have to run between their legs and follow what they do. |
| marc | Can you suggest a tracking mechanism - large specs? |
| JoeRoss |
They do not know how to milk a trend, so the markets take wild swings. Hence "swing trading." The trend is your friend but these days it is a very short friendship. |
| JoeRoss | COT report is valuable for trading spreads. I don't know about anything else. |
| marc | How do you use it for spreads? |
| marsh | I remember from one of your seminars: "The trend is your friend, except at the beginning and the end." |
| JoeRoss | marc: I'm afraid that's a secret that we are not yet willing to share. |
| JoeRoss | marsh: That, too! ;) |
| marc | Well, well, well. Must be a way. |
| hoot |
Joe, I met you at your Denver talk. Am taking a trip to Portland next month, do you know of any similar trading education groups there? Be nice to look them up and see if some talk was going on while I was there. |
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| JoeRoss | marc: I'll give you a hint, but actually it should be quite obvious. The funds are long only. They protect the short side with Put options. They buy in the deferred months so that they minimize rollovers. You should be able to figure out what to do from what I just told you. |
| marc | Yah! it's what I thought. Thanks Joe! |
| JoeRoss | hoot: I imagine if you look up Market Technicians Association you will find where they have groups all over the U.S. with info as to when they meet. |
| hoot | Thank you Joe |
| JoeRoss | We began the chat with two questions: 1. Name the principal Commodity Indexes: 2. Name the 9 major futures exchanges that trade in the U.S. |
| JoeRoss | The answers are: Principal Commodity Indexes: CRB, GSCI, RICI, AIG, DB LIQUID COMMODITY INDEX |
| JoeRoss | Commodity Exchanges: CBOT, CFE, CME, ICE, KCBT, NYBOT, NYMEX, COMEX, USFE |
| berto | Joe, I met you when you came to Denver. Do you use any scans to select stocks? |
| JoeRoss | berto: I used to use a scan, but the company went out of business. |
| JoeRoss | They are going to come back into business very soon, but only with end of day data. |
| JoeRoss | The name of the company is NexTrend and it is excellent stock trading software. It was voted the best in the business, but sadly their timing was bad and they came to market right at the end of the dot com bubble. |
| acman | telechart is a great program for looking at stocks. |
| JoeRoss | But I filter for volume of at least 500K and I look for stocks making new highs or new lows. |
| JoeRoss | It's my bed time everyone. I've been up since 1:30 AM and I'm getting pretty sleepy. |
| JoeRoss | Thanks to all who showed up and thanks for your questions and comments. |
| marsh | Thanks, Joe. Good chat. |
| JoeRoss | Very good chat. |
| Sherri | Thanks and sleep with the angels! |
| marc | Thanks Joe for your info - much appreciated. |
| JoeRoss | Please participate as much as possible. |
| JoeRoss | Do not be bashful. Everyone here loves you and we welcome your input. |
| BenHH79 | Thanks Joe! |
| Fernando | Thanks Joe |
| berto | Get your rest Mr. Joe, thanks. |
| hoot | Thank you, generous with your time and info Joe |
| JoeRoss | Good night everyone |
| forvix | good night, Joe |
Next Chat with
Joe Ross:
Tuesday, August 21 , 2007
Time: 8:00 - 9:00 P.M., U.S. Central Time.
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