Chat with Joe Ross
Chat log from: Tuesday, August 21, 2007
Live Chat with Joe starts Tuesday at 8.00 PM U.S. Central Time! |
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| shamutooth | Good evening |
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| JoeRoss joined. | |
| shamutooth | Hi Joe |
| JoeRoss | Good evening one and all. |
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| JoeRoss | Any exciting trades today? |
| houston | Short the CAD. |
| houston | Since opening of yesterday's evening session... |
| netwonc | Yes, overtraded beans and lost my profit. |
| JoeRoss | Great, I'm short the 9550 CAD Calls. |
| JoeRoss | CAD is down in the Globex. |
| kevinj | Long AD. |
| houston | Will it reach the pivot? :) |
| JoeRoss | netwonc: Ouch, greed can hurt. |
| marsh | Nice Traders Trick Entry for the short CD trade. |
| JoeRoss | houston: I'm thinking 9350 for sure. |
| houston | It's how I celebrated opening my IB account. |
| JoeRoss | Not much in the way of reports this week to mess things up, so by Friday I may be able to buy back my Calls real cheap. |
| houston | I was looking at 9270...maybe I'll take one off around 9350 (if it gets there). |
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| JoeRoss | houston: I'd rather you were right than me. I think CAD is dropping on account of that meeting with Bush and Calderon? |
| marsh |
The movement of the EC (Eurocurrency) correlates with the US stock indexes. The EC also had a Rh and a TTE. So that may mean a lower short term stock index, since the EC and CD may be going down. |
| houston | Perhaps (who knows?) |
| houston | I looked at the weekly chart as well...that supported the trade. |
| JoeRoss | As long as CD goes down I will be happy. |
| shamutooth | Maybe gold will follow the CAD again. Looks like gold is setting up for a TTE, daily chart. |
| houston |
Joe, I plan to start digging into options; I read a few books and know most of the theory, but need to find some good practical ways to capitalize -- I'll start w/ your book. |
| JoeRoss |
I had a little fun with GLD Last Friday. I bought it and XLE. I was in them 10 minutes and decided I was being greedy, so I took out $165 and called it a successful week. |
| marsh | The gold chart is interesting. Three inside bars, each inside the previous. Old time chart analysis predicts a big breakout. |
| JoeRoss | marsh: I agree, but which way? |
| houston | I was just going to ask the same thing :) |
| JoeRoss | The central banks have been at it again selling gold. |
| marsh | Well, the general trend is down, so I'd put odds on down, a continuation of the trend. |
| shamutooth | Marsh, looks to me like a consolidation that broke down, with a RH back testing the envelope. |
| houston | Would we likely expect a shakeout first? |
| JoeRoss | houston: Gold has lots of shakeouts. |
| marsh | It's also at the bottom of the bollinger band, and the first inside bar was open lower, close higher, so that says up. |
| JoeRoss | By the way, tonight's quiz is: Name the kinds of FCMs and how they differ. Also, name the kinds of IBs and how they differ. |
| houston | Joe...a great way to kill the conversation! |
| houston | Wait while I go dig up the intro to futures course... |
| JoeRoss | You don't have to answer it. |
| houston | Ok, I'll pass. |
| JoeRoss | I'm looking at the gold chart, and it just looks like a mess to me. |
| JoeRoss | Beautiful consolidation on the weekly chart. |
| JoeRoss | Making a flagpole with a flag on the monthly chart. |
| JoeRoss | But the flag is flying straight out, which gives no clue at all about direction. |
| shamutooth | Gold is going to be awesome when it breaks out. |
| JoeRoss | If it goes down, the flag will be at half-mast. |
| marsh | For the FCM question, are you talking about how they are formed, like associations vs partnerships? |
| JoeRoss | marsh: No. I'm talking about types. There are 2 types. |
| houston | Clearing and non-? |
| JoeRoss | Hooray. |
| JoeRoss | That is correct. |
| JoeRoss | How about IBs? |
| JoeRoss | Also 2 types. |
| houston | Hint: GIB and IIB |
| houston | (If it's a standard industry term). |
| JoeRoss | Good hint. |
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| marsh | GIB = guaranteed. |
| JoeRoss | Correct |
| marsh | This means that one Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) clears every trade for the entire firm. |
| JoeRoss | Give the man a red balloon. |
| houston | All accounts carried by the GIB are carried by the guaranteeing FCM, with whom it has an exclusive relationship... |
| marsh | IIB = independent = multiple clearing firms. |
| JoeRoss | A clearing FCM is the only Futures Commission Merchant who is allowed to hold your money. |
| JoeRoss | A clearing FCM can have under him, non-clearing FCMs, IBs, and APs. |
| houston | So...with a guaranteed IB your account is backed by the capitalization of the FCM, not your IB? |
| JoeRoss | houston: Correct. |
| houston | "The brokerage firm you do business with should be of the very highest moral integrity" -- Joe: what percentage would you say that is? |
| JoeRoss |
The Clearing FCM must keep your money in a segregated account separate from all other money he may handle. The account must be in a bank, and the bank must keep the money entirely segregated from any of its own money. That is why the safest place to have your money is in a futures trading account. |
| marsh |
As far as the "backing" or safety of your funds on deposit with a broker, that money is kept on deposit at a bank (usually Harris Bank), and the FCM or the IB can't touch it, except to add or withdraw as you win or lose. |
| JoeRoss | If being a broker had anything to do with morality, many of them would be out of business. |
| houston |
"A firm...may have principals and brokers that have entire careers being associated with unethical and disreputable firms that have been permanently barred, suspended or expelled from the industry." |
| JoeRoss | marsh is right, plus the bank can't touch it either. The guys who wrote the laws knew first-hand how crooked people could be ;) |
| JoeRoss | The way they wrote the laws protected futures traders when Refco went belly-up. |
| marsh | Yeah, I had a Refco account at the time, and no problemo. |
| houston | I heard Jim Rogers lost big on that one... |
| JoeRoss | Not one of the people we had sent to Refco lost a single dime. |
| houston | Or his fund at least; don't recall the specifics. |
| houston | It was due to the nature of the arrangement they had. |
| JoeRoss | But many brokers lost, because Refco couldn't pay commissions. The money was locked into the bankruptcy. |
| JoeRoss | Jim Rogers probably didn't lose anything. The people in his fund probably took the loss. |
| JoeRoss | Wow CD is really coming down. |
| JoeRoss | 9384 |
| houston | Great! Maybe I can take my first profit before the chat ends... |
| marsh |
There was that big S&P trader, Swartz or something like that, and when his broker went out of business, he got real uptight and was screaming at people. Why, unless he was doing something shady to begin with? |
| houston | Marty...the "Pit Bull" (good book...for entertainment value at least). |
| JoeRoss | marsh: That was probably Marty Schwartz. |
| JoeRoss | I heard he had a heart attack. I wonder if he still trades??? |
| houston | According the the book, he continued to trade. |
| tomn | Hi Joe.. just checking in from Germany. Kind of late/early here but enjoying the conversation. Tom. |
| JoeRoss | Hi tomn :) glad to see you here. |
| JoeRoss | Marty was the only guy who actually told what he does in Market Wizards. |
| tomn | I almost forgot about it as it started at 3AM. |
| marsh | Yeah, Marty. If his money was safe, why was he worried that his broker failed. Unless the story was a fairy tale. |
| JoeRoss | I wonder how many people caught on to what Schwartz was saying? |
| houston |
From the book: "Over the weekend, I kept improving and while my temperature had gone down to 99.8, the bonds had gone up to 9301. When the market opened on Monday the twelfth, I sold the four hundred bonds for a $112,500 profit." |
| marsh | I didn't catch on. What was he saying? |
| JoeRoss | He said, "Whenever I can see 2 Standard Deviations, I will take it." |
| JoeRoss | Does that give you a clue? |
| JoeRoss | He was talking about the S&P 500. |
| marsh | Trading with a Bollinger Band? |
| JoeRoss | The original SP 500 that was traded in the pits. |
| JoeRoss | Right, BBs |
| JoeRoss | BBs are where I got the idea for the "gimmee" bars. |
| shamutooth | What's a gimmee bar? |
| JoeRoss | I had been trading gimmee bars for years using my trading envelope. But when Bollinger Bands came out I also looked at those as a way to trade gimmees. |
| JoeRoss | A gimmee is a reversal bar at the bands when prices are moving sideways. |
| JoeRoss | But don't try to take those when it is trending. |
| JoeRoss | 9382 for the CAD. |
| houston | What do you think? |
| marsh | Well, the market went sideways today, and I can see some good trades with it on the 10 min chart. |
| houston | Er...what do you see :) |
| JoeRoss | I'll bet if you look at a weekly gold chart and put the BBs on it, you will find a lot of good trades. |
| houston | Thanks Joe, a research opportunity. |
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| JoeRoss | I just did it, but it is not as good as I thought it would be. |
| houston | I like the Stochastics on the weekly chart...seemed pretty useful |
| JoeRoss | There were only 2 gimmee bars :-( |
| JoeRoss | My trading envelope would have done a lot better. |
| houston | I guess it depends on the market. |
| houston | Joe, when are you going to be writing another book? |
| houston | Forgot: you're working on the videos. |
| JoeRoss | I'm writing one now. It is going to be Trading by the Book II |
| houston | What color is it going to be? (!) |
| marsh | CD = 9381 |
| JoeRoss | I just finished the Spread video. |
| hoot | Joe, re. your "trading envelope", is that referencing some trade type that's in one of your books? Thanks. |
| JoeRoss | houston: What color would you like? |
| acman | Anybody trading the wheat? It looked like a reversal bar and the follow thru today was weak and failed a Traders trick on the long side. |
| houston | What color is "fuchsia"? |
| marsh | I like a fall leaf color. |
| JoeRoss | hoot: It is in Trading by the Book. |
| hoot | Thanks. |
| JoeRoss | I'll have to rename that first one Trading by the Book I. |
| JoeRoss | houston, fuschia is in the pink/red family, but I don't think they will give us that as a choice. |
| tomn | Maybe a shade of blue. |
| houston | Joe, maybe I'll think about it more and send you a few swatches. |
| houston | Keep it basic, true to the fundamental truths that undergird your classic methodologies. |
| JoeRoss |
I just drew the trading envelope on the weekly gold, it had 5 gimmee bars and 3 of them went across the whole trading range and 1 went more than half way across. One went up for only 1 week, but all made money.. |
| JoeRoss | I coulda, shoulda, woulda made a fortune trading it this year. |
| tomn | Joe, what trading software do you use or recommend? |
| marsh |
I'll be interested to see what you do in the section where you use MACD on the weekly and stoch. on the daily. Anything differently, depending less on indicators? Essentially, if one sees upward movement on the weekly bar, take TTEs on the daily bar. |
| JoeRoss |
tomn: I really can't say. No software is perfect, they all end up in a love/hate relationship. None of them ever do all the things you want them to do, and most of them have a lot of garbage on them you'll never use. You have to choose one that does most of what you want it to do. |
| JoeRoss | marsh: I'm not rewriting TBB, I'm writing a new TBB. |
| JoeRoss | There won't be any MACD in it. |
| houston | Joe: When's it coming out? |
| marsh | Can we place advance orders? |
| tomn |
I agree. the only way to get exactly what you want is to build it yourself, but that's a big undertaking. A friend in Australia did that and spent a lot of money on his custom software. Probably 7 figures... |
| JoeRoss | Some time next year I hope. It will be a monster book in size.. |
| JoeRoss | Huge! |
| JoeRoss |
marsh: I'll have to ask Susan and Denise about advance sales. The best is to be a subscriber of Chart Scan Newsletter. We will offer the book there as soon as it is for sale. Also you should check out our book section regularly and the forum for announcements. |
| marsh | I'm excited about it. |
| JoeRoss | Me too. |
| houston | Joe, good timing: I just put up a new bookshelf. |
| JoeRoss | I can't believe it but it's 9PM |
| JoeRoss | I really have to leave, but I truly enjoyed the conversation this evening. |
| hoot | Thank you Joe |
| acman | I have been using TradeStation with the TradingGraphics routines and have been very pleased with the results. Accounts keep going up. |
| JoeRoss | Take care everyone. |
| tomn | Nice to see you Joe ... see you next time. |
| houston | Ok, thanks. |
| JoeRoss | Have a great week and good trading. |
| kevinj | PEACE and take care y'all. |
| shamutooth | GN |
| marsh | Thanks, Joe. Good night. |
| JoeRoss | Help me push the CD down |
| shamutooth | hehe |
| JoeRoss | I hope none of you are long. |
| JoeRoss | I'm pushing hard (grunt, grunt). |
| JoeRoss | Good night. |
| acman | Happy trading. Hope this next few weeks are 10% as profitable as the last 2! |
Next Chat with
Joe Ross:
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
Time: 8:00 - 9:00 P.M., U.S. Central Time.
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