Trading Educators Inc. - Joe Ross - Day Trading and Online Trading

Chat with Joe Ross

Chat log from: Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Live Chat with Joe starts Tuesday at 8.00 PM U.S. Central Time!

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bert	Hi Joe
JoeRoss	Hi Bert
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JoeRoss	Hi spread
JoeRoss	Hi Shamu
JoeRoss	Hi Marsh
shamutooth	Hey guys
marsh	Hi Joe
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JoeRoss	Does anyone know that there is a commodity cycle and if there is how long it lasts on average?
spreadtrader	Hi Joe
bert	Don't know.
spreadtrader	Just a guess, 15 years or so.
shamutooth	I've heard that gold tends to run 8-10 years.
JoeRoss	Spread got closest. 18 years.
JoeRoss	If the recent commodity cycle began in 2000, we can expect commodities to go up for another 10-11 years.
netwonc	Very interesting. Would you care to elaborate on the commodity cycle?
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JoeRoss	Sure. On an inflation adjusted basis, and a vertical scale of 5, we have not even reached 2 yet
JoeRoss	We are at about 1.5
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shamutooth	There's been opportunity to make a tremendous amount of $ since 2000; I can't begin to imagine what it will be like on the final exhaustion move.
JoeRoss	The last peak was around 1970, which was 5 on the scale.
netwonc	Where can I find this information on inflation and commodity cycle?
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JoeRoss	netwonc: I got it from a thing called "Global Investment."
netwonc	Was it a study or report?
JoeRoss	The Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodities Index is up by over 200% more than the stock market since 2003.
JoeRoss	It was a study.
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netwonc	Thanks, Joe , think I will look it up later, sounds very interesting.
JoeRoss	Studies show that commodities have outperformed both stocks and bonds over a 45 year period and with less risk. Amazing!
netwonc	Wonder why the standard media is always pushing stocks and not commodities.
bert	I think the standard media looks down their collective noses at commodities... and they're bull market cheerleaders.
JoeRoss	Here's another interesting thing: Research shows that passive commodity investments -- in other words indexes based on physical commodities themselves, performed three times better than investing in the common stocks of commodity producers like Exxon for example over a period of 45 years.
JoeRoss	I agree, bert. They are bull market cheerleaders.
marsh	Sure, look at the rise in the price of copper vs a copper mine stock.
shamutooth	The Powers To Be want to hide commodity price increases as best they can to cover up the inflation they're creating.
Fernando	Hi Joe Ross, Do you think it is a good idea in a bear marketing to put a buy order on the next strong support to try to get that sprint back to normal price after a marketing panic or the risk is too high. What is the best way to buy after the pull-back we are read to see at DJI and BOVESPA
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JoeRoss	Fernando: I think it is too risky. It might cause you to get in too soon.
spreadtrader	Joe, are there any commodity ETFs or indexes that can be traded directly?
JoeRoss	Fernando, wait for prices to bottom out with a 1-2-3 formation.
JoeRoss	spread: Yes there are ETFs hold on and I'll have them in a minute. I have to put on my reading glasses :)
JoeRoss	DBC is the symbol traded on AMEX.
JoeRoss	The name is PowerShares DB Commodity Index ETF.
Fernando	Ok, Joe.
spreadtrader	Thank you, Joe.
JoeRoss	They invest in crude oil, heating oil, aluminum, gold, corn, wheat.
netwonc	This should be safer than trading outright for the long term, kinda like insurance....don't you think?
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JoeRoss	netwonc: Yes kinda like insurance. These are great for the long run, and if you're not as old as me you can hold them for the next 10 years.
Fernando	Joe, what is your feeling about DJI pull-back correction? It will be only a test of last correction or you see another lower low pull-back and a continuation in a bear marketing?
spreadtrader	You can still hold them for 10 years, too, Joe!
shamutooth	Joe, you're going to live to 102, remember?
JoeRoss	Yes I can! I plan on living another 32 years.
JoeRoss	shamu: 104 is the goal.
shamutooth	I'm getting old and forgetful :)
JoeRoss	Fernando, I truly do not know. I lost my fortune teller's crystal ball many years ago.
mapletrader	HEY JOE, HOW ARE YOU DOING TONIGHT? YOU MENTIONED ?AUSTRIAN? ANUITIES AS A DOLLAR HEDGE IN A RECENT ARTICLE, WOULD YOU COMMENT WHAT FIRM OR TYPE OF FIRM TO CONTACT?
Fernando	Joe, is it true you lost your fortune?
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JoeRoss	maple: I don't know of any specific firm. You might contact the Sovereign Society, they have specific information.
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manta	Joe, which of your books should be my first read, as a swing trader in stocks?
mapletrader	THANK-YOU, JOE.
JoeRoss	Fernando: If you mean me, in 1987 it cost me 1.4 million dollars to stay alive. I had to file a bankruptcy to protect my home and my trading equipment, and my car. But it wasn't from losing in the market. It was from an illness.
JoeRoss	manta: Read TNT I.
mapletrader	Joe, I have been trying to subscribe to the WOW report since Alan came back from vacation and have been unable to do so using the link on the options trading page. Is the WOW report still being published?
Fernando	Joe, in a few words what Rh tells you?
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BofB	Hey room, Joe, shamu.
JoeRoss	maple: I don't know, I will have to contact Alan and ask him. I don't read it myself.
shamutooth	Yen rising again tonight; gonna keep punishing the carry trade.
JoeRoss	But I think Alan has it on his website.
Mel	Joe, are there any position trading methods available to someone with <$2k? Any market?
shamutooth	What's up BofB:)
mapletrader	I will try that. Thanks.
JoeRoss	Fernando: Rh is always based on profit taking in a trend.
BofB	Not much is up, lol.
JoeRoss	Mel: With 2 K you can buy some stocks. You can buy 1 or 2 options on stocks or futures.
mapletrader	By the way, do you have the URL for Alan's website? I am having trouble locating it.
Rod	Hi Joe, Similar to Mel's question - for someone keen to test the waters in commodities/futures, can you please recommend some smaller-sized contracts. For example, are there 'mini' contracts available on, say, wheat, corn, copper, etc.?
JoeRoss	www.tradingeducators.co.za is Alan's website
mapletrader	Thanks again JR!
Fernando	Joe, after Rh you sell in a bull market to profit taking, correct?
JoeRoss	Fernando: If you were already long, yes, you can sell to take profit. That is what other traders are doing, and it is the selling that causes the correction that forms the Rh.
Fernando	Joe, The idea is to follow the shark!
mapletrader	The darn shark should put on his turn signals!
JoeRoss	Rod: If at all possible you should not trade mini commodity contracts. They are very, very thinly traded and you will pay excessive commissions to trade them. Slippage is horrendous.
shamutooth	LOL!
JoeRoss	Rod: You would be better off to test the waters by trading the full-size contracts on a simulator while saving up enough money to trade.
mapletrader	Alan's site links back to to the main site for further info!
manta	What source do you recommend for commodity charting and data?
JoeRoss	I will have to write to Alan.
Rod	OK. Thanks for the heads up, Joe. Unfortunately my broker does not offer separate demo accounts. Are you able to suggest any futures brokers that do, please?
JoeRoss	I'll have to email Alan and ask him or you can aparry@telkomsa.net.za
JoeRoss	manta: It depends on how much you can afford and whether or not you need live data.
mapletrader	Thank you, I will email him.
JoeRoss	Rod: Please send me an email, and I will recommend a broker for you. I don't do that in the chat.
JoeRoss	support@tradingeducators.com
manta	I use esignal for trading stocks with live data, used to trade commodities but need to study more before going back to them.
Rod	Ok Thanks, Joe.
shamutooth	Joe, any trades going for you this week?
JoeRoss	shamu: Yes, I just this afternoon closed out a C$ Call option, for $1,058.
shamutooth	Nice.
JoeRoss	manta: Hurry back. There's more money in futures trading.
Fernando	Joe, what is your preferred Brazilian stock nowadays?
JoeRoss	I had sold the 9550 call for 42 cents and bought it back today for 20 cents
JoeRoss	Fernando: I still like Petrobas.
mapletrader	Joe - how did you manage the protection--five cents below the strike?
JoeRoss	It will soon be a very good buy.
mapletrader	It takes some margin to absorb the volatility!
Fernando	Joe, for day trading or for long run you like petrobras?
mapletrader	That (volatility) chewed me up on corn puts earlier this season.
JoeRoss	maple: Interesting question. I had a stop in the futures 5 cents below the strike. Last week I went to close out the trade for $1,100. But I have a great deal of difficulty seeing prices because of my dyslexia, and instead of buying back the Call, I ended up buying the 9650 Call.
mapletrader	lol
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JoeRoss	That kinda put me in a pickle. I could see that if both options expired worthless I would still make $1,100, so I pulled my futures stop out of the market. The next day they hit 9550 and the Call was in the money, but only for a few minutes. So I kept my protection via the long 9650 call, even though if price would have ended up in between I would have lost $500.
JoeRoss	I just waited it out and today when prices hit 9390, I dumped the short call. I still have the long call, but in the next few days if prices rally I can get rid of it, which I will do at any price above 5 cents.
JoeRoss	I have a great deal of trouble with the electronic platforms. I was an expert at calling the floor, but I am suffering with the electronic order entries.
mapletrader	Nice. Gotta be beside that data stream to make it work. Hard to do it "from work"!
JoeRoss	If I bring up a dome for trading, I often click on the wrong side.
JoeRoss	Fernand: Petrobas for the long term.
mapletrader	Away from the trading console, I mean.
rascal2	Why do you think that is Joe? floor vs. electronic
Fernando	Hi Joe, thanks !!! Now I will leave this chat and go to sleep..... until next chat and have nice days on.
rascal2	So long, Fernando.
JoeRoss	rascal2: I have a problem with dyslexia. My eyes switch the sides.
JoeRoss	I do the same thing with numbers.
rascal2	So it's voice vs. vision????
JoeRoss	Yes, voice vs vision.
mapletrader	Bigger screens make a huge difference to me working day-to-day. Just reading. I only invert the occasional character-less when I do not have to use my imagination about what I am reading lol!
JoeRoss	It is becoming a real problem for me and if I can't overcome it, I will have to find someone to enter trades for me.
JoeRoss	In the last 6 trades I made, I screwed up 4 times.
rascal2	The older I get, the smaller the screens seem to get.
JoeRoss	Part of my problem is that I am doing the trades on a laptop and the font is too small. But I have to get used to using it because that is what I have to trade with when I am giving live trading in front of an audience.
JoeRoss	A friend was here today and he showed me how I could make the font larger, so maybe that will help.
JoeRoss	Well, it is my bed time and I still have to look at my email.
OzTrader	See you Joe, Thanks for the info, enjoyed the chat room.
netwonc	Good night all, time for the sandman...til next week.
JoeRoss	See you next week.
shamutooth	GN Joe, everyone.
rascal2	G'nite Joe. Rest those eyes!!!
bert	Thank you, Joe, good night
BofB	G'nite all, Joe
mapletrader	And screens with better resolution make cleaner sharper characters.
Mel	Thanks, Joe
JoeRoss	Good night all
mapletrader	Goodnight Joe and thanks for sharing your knowledge.
Rod	Thanks, Joe.

Next Chat with Joe Ross:
Tuesday, September 4, 2007
Time: 8:00 - 9:00 P.M., U.S. Central Time.

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