Chat with Joe Ross
Chat log from: Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Live Chat with Joe starts Tuesday at 8.00 PM U.S. Central Time! |
| JoeRoss joined. | |
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| bert | Hi Joe |
| JoeRoss | Hi Bert |
| JoeRoss | How goes the trading? |
| bert | I haven't been doing much... I'm a small account trader. |
| JoeRoss | That's okay, I started with a small account, too. |
| JoeRoss | Bert, are you in California? |
| bert | Tacoma, Washington. |
| JoeRoss | I hope you're not getting any of the California fires. |
| bert | Nothin' like that here ... just good ol rain, except for the last 2 days. |
| JoeRoss | I was just reading about 346,000 homes having to be evacuated in San Diego county. |
| bert | Where are the people going? |
| JoeRoss | They have been putting them into hotels, but some of the hotels have to be evacuated now. Some are being taken to one of the stadiums. |
| bert | What a tragedy that is... and a mess, too. |
| JoeRoss | It sure is. From the Mexican border all the way up to Lake Tahoe in the North. |
| JoeRoss | 1,000 homes destroyed around Lake Tahoe. |
| bert | We had some fires east of the mountains earlier this summer. |
| JoeRoss | I read about those. |
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| JoeRoss | I grew up in Southern Californina., but I don't remember anything as widespread as this. |
| JoeRoss | Hi netwonc. |
| netwonc | HI Joe. where is everyone tonight? |
| netwonc | I guess your talking about the fires in California. |
| JoeRoss | I don't know where they are. Did you get the email about the chat being on for tonight? |
| bert | I got the email, yes. |
| netwonc | Yes I did, too. |
| JoeRoss | Yeah, we're talking about the fires. |
| JoeRoss | Maybe people are watching the baseball playoffs. |
| netwonc | Surely not. This is much more fun that a ball game, at least to me. |
| JoeRoss | I suppose so. I don't have network TV so I don't even know if the games are on tonight. |
| netwonc | Didn't you just return from Europe? |
| bert | I think they're waiting for the series to start. |
| JoeRoss | I got back one week ago today. I'm still wiped out and must go back again in 11 days. |
| netwonc | Wow! How do you handle the "jet lag"? |
| bert | How about the prices over there, with the Euro going up? |
| JoeRoss | netwonc: I don't handle it very well. In fact I came down with a bad cold. The traveling weakens my immune system. |
| netwonc | Do you think the euro will continue getting stronger against the dollar, seems to have slowed somewhat recently? |
| JoeRoss | bert: It's pretty bad if you have dollars. Pretty good if you have euros and come to the U.S. |
| JoeRoss | netwonc: I'm convinced we will see 1.45 by the end of the year and 1.50 sometime next year. |
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| JoeRoss | If the FED cuts interest rates in December, the euro will almost certainly hit 1.45, and I think the FED will cut. |
| TomNunamaker | Hi Joe!!! |
| netwonc | I am considering an account at Everbank for the purpose of investing in the euro. Have you heard any thing bad about that bank? |
| sherri | Hi Joe! Welcome back! |
| JoeRoss | Hi sherri, hi Tom. |
| JoeRoss | netwonc: Nothing bad about Everbank. They are doing a great job. |
| bert | Didn't some government buy a lot of dollars? |
| TomNunamaker | Gaby and I are looking forward to seeing you in a few weeks. |
| JoeRoss | bert: I haven't heard about anyone buying dollars. Did you hear anything? |
| JoeRoss | Tom we leave for Italy in 11 days. |
| netwonc | Finally! Some more traders are finally here. |
| TomNunamaker | Ok Joe.. we should probably talk on the phone before you go. |
| bert | I was reading something on the net and it mentioned a purchase of dollars to shore it up. |
| JoeRoss | I hope I get over my cold by the time we leave. |
| JoeRoss | bert: It could be someone buying dollars, but I think anyone who is buying dollars needs to have their head examined :) |
| TomNunamaker | That would be good Joe.. when I flew.. I always had aphrin with me for sinus problems. |
| bert | I think you're right, Joe. It looks like the dollar is being destroyed. |
| JoeRoss | I get sick every time I fly if I don't take an antibiotic, but I have become allergic to amoxycillin. |
| JoeRoss | bert: I believe the dollar is being intentionally destroyed. |
| JoeRoss | It's the only way the FED has for buying time. |
| JoeRoss | Weak dollar, exports go up. Tourism goes up. |
| TomNunamaker | Weak dollar helps the big companies at earnings times as they have large foreign operations. Not much reason to boost the dollar. |
| JoeRoss | More jobs in the areas of exports, and tourism.. |
| bert | And the nonsense they talk about while it is happening! |
| JoeRoss | Yes, they keep talking about a strong dollar all the while they are sabotaging it. |
| bert | There was a story on the wire this morning about the base metals leaping in price. |
| netwonc | Joe, what do you think of buying some Swiss francs. as opposed to the euro? |
| JoeRoss | MacDonalds huge profit came from their overseas stores when they converted those foreign currencies back into dollars. |
| JoeRoss | netwonc: I think it's a very good idea...but maybe wait a bit. |
| sherri |
Joe, you might think vitamins and such are nonsense, BUT, you could take oscillococcinum, which is a homeopathic, when you get on the plane. It is only tiny little pellets in a tiny little vial. Every flyer I've suggested them to has been happy. Ask your wife about them. She probably knows. |
| JoeRoss | Not much interest can be earned on francs, and Switzerland charges taxes on what you earn, but still a good hedge. |
| JoeRoss | sherri: We are herbal fanatics around here. At least my wife is. So she is out right now stocking up on echinacea extract. |
| JoeRoss | The problem with Swiss francs right now is that they will get battered if/when the carry trade reverses. |
| TomNunamaker | The Germans here love the homeopathic stuff. I just bought some hand cream for a friend in San Francisco at the local pharmacy. |
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| sherri | Good. But check out that oscillococcinum, also. You're breathing in a vile mix of re circulated air on those airplanes. |
| JoeRoss | It's cheap to borrow francs and invest in higher interest countries. |
| JoeRoss | Thanks sherri: I will look into oscillococcinum. |
| shamutooth | Hey Joe and all. |
| OzTrader | Hi Joe, Sorry I'm late? |
| shamutooth | Joe, hope you had a nice trip. |
| JoeRoss | Welcome shamu and oz. |
| netwonc | I was thinking of buying some Swiss francs as a hedge to the falling dollar. |
| sherri | What do they think in Europe of our dollar situation over here? |
| JoeRoss | Very nice trip. Susan's wedding was a blast. It lasted for one evening and most of 2 days. |
| netwonc | Would the carry rates negatively effect a investment like that? |
| OzTrader | Where about's is Susan located? Joe? |
| shamutooth | Joe, you should post some pictures on the forum. |
| TomNunamaker | The European's love the cheap dollar. My friend in France wants to send his children to U.S. Universities as it is relatively cheap for him. |
| OzTrader | You must have been worn out? |
| JoeRoss | netwonc: Wait until the carry trade unwinds. You'll get a better buy. Just use the euro or the pound right now. |
| netwonc | Thanks, Joe. |
| JoeRoss | sherri: Europeans are very much aware of the dollar. They have mixed feelings about it. |
| JoeRoss | It worries them, but it also makes stuff from the U.S. cheap, and a great place to take a vacation. |
| JoeRoss | Oz: I'm still worn out. I came down with a cold within a couple of days of getting back home. |
| sherri | Gosh, what do we make to sell them? I've got a couple loons in the pond out back, but that's about it. |
| JoeRoss | Oz: Susan came home today from her honeymoon in Greece. She lives about 5 miles from where I live. |
| JoeRoss | In Texas |
| OzTrader | Wow, sounds great. |
| shamutooth | Has anyone seen the bank charts lately? One after another are breaking badly. Wachovia, National City, Citi, Downey, Washington Mutual, Zion's, Indy mac. IMB is down 14 straight days! |
| JoeRoss | sherri: They buy our services and believe it or not we still manufacture things that they want. Farm equipment, tools, and like Tom says, they can send their kids here for a low priced education. |
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| JoeRoss | shamu: You mean pictures of the wedding? If so, I think the photographer took about 1,000 of them. |
| TomNunamaker | You can buy an iPod in Europe for 150 Euro that costs $150 in the US.. if you buy enough toys like that, it pays for a plane ticket, which many in Europe are doing. Shopping vacations. |
| shamutooth | Yes, pictures of the wedding. |
| JoeRoss | netwonc, When the carry trade unwinds, traders will be selling the franc. |
| JoeRoss | That will be a great buying opportunity. |
| netwonc | shamu, I was reading recently where a bank in Wisconsin or Minn. , somewhere up there had to be taken over by FDIC. |
| sherri | What a great idea, Tom! |
| netwonc | FDIC and was closed for a couple of days to do the paper work. |
| JoeRoss | shamu: I'll see if Susan wants to post them. |
| ronnie | How about that oil, Joe? |
| shamutooth | Netwonc, there have been several so far the FDIC has had to bail them out; mostly small banks. |
| JoeRoss | ronnie: $100/bbl is coming soon. I didn't look but maybe it hit it today ;) |
| netwonc | It was a small one that I read about. But cause for concern though. |
| ronnie | 85 today, but I believe it. |
| ronnie | The way the dollar is turning into pesos, 120 might be reasonable as well. |
| netwonc | Joe have you ever seen such chaos in the economy before these past couple of years? |
| JoeRoss | I had one student from Netherlands who came here, filled up a suitcase with Levi 501 jeans and sold them over there and made more money selling them than he spent on the flight and the entire time he was here. |
| JoeRoss | The banks that made bad loans are getting hit badly. |
| shamutooth | Netwonc, the banks I mentioned have had violent moves down the last 1-2 weeks. I've never seen so many of them act that way at once. |
| ronnie | The first baby boomers filed for social benefits. |
| ronnie | It's a matter of time to see how those underfunded accounts can keep up. |
| JoeRoss | netwonc: This is the worst chaos I've ever seen in my short lifetime of 72 years. |
| sherri | You know, all these things are scary. And many people are oblivious to them. Sometimes I wonder if I'm not catastrophizing! |
| ronnie | I feel the same, sherri. |
| OzTrader | Do you believe this is worse than the chaos created by the crash? |
| netwonc | I wanted to make sure I wasn't dreaming. At 66, it is the worst I have seen it. |
| JoeRoss | Keep your eye on Merrill Lynch (MER) if it stays weak or gets weaker, the year will end very badly. MER has always been a bell weather for the stock market. |
| ronnie | Just look at Social Security, that alone will bankrupt the system. |
| ronnie | Add the trillions we owe to China, Saudi Arabia etc.... It looks insolvent to me. |
| JoeRoss | ronnie: I was talking to a doctor today who was telling me they are getting tons of 56 year old men and women. |
| ronnie | Personally, as an accountant, I don't see where all this magic money is going to come from and meet all these obligations. |
| JoeRoss | The best advice I can give anyone is to keep your trading account in a foreign currency and get every spare dollar you can into other currencies. |
| bert | Merrill Lynch looks like its breaking out down out of a trading range. |
| JoeRoss | ronnie: We definitely are insolvent. The market wanted to crash on Monday but the PPT came into the rescue. |
| ronnie | And if or when China floats its money, watch inflation break every record. |
| sherri | Speaking of trading ranges, I loved the Chart Talk for the past 11 sessions. I have a question there, but I'll post it on the forum. |
| JoeRoss | ronnie: That's the way I see it. The FED would rather inflate than risk a deflation. |
| OzTrader | Yes Joe thanks for the advice on Congestion Trading, it is really helping me. |
| ronnie | Hence no more M3 count. |
| ronnie | If you look at M3 for the past 30 years, its looks like a log chart. |
| ronnie | The rate of currency creation is growing exponentially. |
| sherri | How many times can the PPT come to the rescue? |
| sherri | Forever? |
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| JoeRoss | Well, Bernanke said right from the start: "We have a printing press and we will use it." |
| ronnie | Read the creature from Jeckyll island, sherri and see how this game works. |
| ronnie | It's really funny. |
| sherri | Is it a book? |
| JoeRoss | sherri, they can rescue as long as there are people who are willing to buy. |
| ronnie | Yes sherri, a book. |
| ronnie | It's about how the fed works. |
| sherri | O.K. |
| ronnie | It's how the FED was created and how useless it really is; nothing more than a banking cartel. |
| JoeRoss | Amen to that. |
| JoeRoss | The FED was formed to protect the value of the dollar :D But the dollar is worth only 3 cents compared with its value when the FED was created. |
| ronnie | Print money. Charge tax payers interest for printing their money. Repeat. |
| sherri | Well, I gotta ask: how long do you think people will be "willing to buy?" |
| ronnie | Thank god for the legal tender laws. |
| ronnie | It assures their monopoly stands for a while. |
| JoeRoss | sherri: They will buy as long as the last sucker is there who is willing to buy. It's called the greater fool theory. |
| JoeRoss | Every time the market dips people want to jump in thinking they are getting a bargain, and the stock prices keep rising. But in terms of real money, the stock market is worth less today than it was in 1970. |
| JoeRoss | If you take out all the inflation, stocks have less value than they did back then.. |
| sherri | Joe, in one of your advisories, you said the game will be shifting from stocks to commodities. So you sort of know when this game winds down? |
| ronnie | Didn't you say once joe that the Dow would have to be at 20,000 for it to have kept up all these years? |
| JoeRoss | sherri: Well, it is already happening. Commodity prices are soaring, and stocks in terms of real dollars are down. |
| JoeRoss | ronnie: I'm not sure I understand what you said. |
| ronnie | Oops my poor chat room grammar. |
| ronnie | Once you said that the dow would have to be at 20,000 to have kept up with inflation all these years. |
| ronnie | right? |
| JoeRoss | I see what you mean: Yes the Dow would need to be at that price to keep up. |
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| JoeRoss | The higher stock prices we are seeing are only because the dollar has been falling for the last 14 years at a rate of about 4%/year. |
| zendre | Hi. |
| ronnie | Well if you convert stock indexes or commodities for that matter in terms of euros, you don't have much growth at all. |
| JoeRoss | Hi zendre. |
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| JoeRoss | Zendre, you are supposed to be asleep ;) |
| JoeRoss | Hi acman. |
| TomNunamaker | Me too Joe.. it's nearly 4AM in Germany :) |
| acman | Hi Joe. Not used to chat due to the break. |
| zendre | Right. |
| ronnie | Joe what's your thoughts on the Chinese markets, still opportunity left or will have a bad fall? |
| TomNunamaker | Joe, any thoughts on the NDX how it's really not moving in line with the other indexes? It looked it wanted to breakout to the upside earlier today. |
| acman | Markets have finally come alive. I have done really well with the ER-YM spread this past week. |
| JoeRoss |
I was in a conversation with someone in Beijing this morning. It will still go higher. Here's why. Some of the best Chinese stocks, which have been unavailable to outside buyers, are now going to be listed in Hong Kong. There will be a huge surge of buying by all the investors who have not been able to buy directly within China. |
| bert | The Chinese markets? Would you use an index to trade that? |
| ronnie | Hang Seng, bert. |
| JoeRoss | Tom: I'm not familiar with NDX. |
| bert | Thanks. |
| JoeRoss | Take a look at the gold silver spread. It's fantastic. |
| ronnie | Jim Rogers has been touting on and on about holding Chinese blue chips and their currency for a while. |
| JoeRoss | Long gold, short silver. |
| JoeRoss | bert: Yes, you can use the Hang Seng. |
| zendre | FXI? |
| bert | Thank you, Joe. |
| JoeRoss | What is FXI? |
| zendre | ETF |
| zendre | For China. |
| acman |
I was looking at the ETF's for the US exchanges and the QID has outperformed the UWM. Since the bottom in August, the QID has moved 45% and the UWM 35%. The QID is double the Nasdaq and UWM is double the Russell 2000. |
| ronnie | Joe, would you recommend using offshore brokerages for long term holds... in case its gets nasty around here? |
| JoeRoss | zendre: That might be a good way. I am not familiar with that symbol, FXI. |
| TomNunamaker | Joe, I'm going to take your advice and get some sleep. Do you mind if I call tomorrow to talk about the trip to Germany? |
| JoeRoss | ronnie: I would prefer an international brokerage of some kind. |
| JoeRoss | Tom: Give me a call. |
| JoeRoss | Good night. |
| TomNunamaker | Thanks Joe.. I'll call in the morning your time. |
| JoeRoss | Okay, no problem. |
| zendre | Joe: A basic question: In your analysis. Do you use trendlines as support/resistance lines? |
| JoeRoss | zendre: Not very often. |
| zendre | Why is that so? |
| JoeRoss | zendre: I am not a believer in support and resistance. To my mind those terms are oxymorons. |
| zendre | Interesting. |
| zendre | Does the Silver/Gold spread have a long seasonal window? |
| JoeRoss | zendre: I don't know anything about seasonality in that spread. I just like what I see there. |
| zendre | Why do you like that? |
| ronnie | Guten nacht, Joe. |
| zendre | I mean this spread? |
| JoeRoss | gute Nacht, ronnie. |
| acman | It seems like using those terms confuse one into thinking there is a way to predict. Predicting is a very expensive trait. I have almost got rid of it. Learning to go with the flow. |
| JoeRoss | zendre: I like the spread because it is rising and making a lot of money. |
| JoeRoss | That's great to hear, acman. |
| acman | The terms I referred to are support/resistance. |
| zendre | :) |
| JoeRoss | It's time to say goodnight |
| OzTrader | Joe, Thanks again, Enjoyed the chat and forum. Talk soon. |
| JoeRoss | I'll see you next week. I think there are two more chats and then I'm off to Europe again. OOPS. Only one more chat on the 30th. |
| shamutooth | GN Joe and all. |
| sherri | Thanks Joe and everyone. Take care of yourself, Joe. Rest up. |
| bert | Thanks, Joe gnight. |
| zendre | Good night! and good dawn. :) |
| acman | Goodnight Joe. Goodnight everyone. Happy trading!!!! |
| netwonc | good nite all |
Next Chat with
Joe Ross:
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Time: 8:00 - 9:00 P.M., U.S. Central Time.
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