Chat with Joe Ross
Chat log from: Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Live Chat with Joe starts Tuesday at 8.00 PM U.S. Central Time! |
elliew joined. JoeRoss joined. zendre joined. JoeRoss Hi Ellie. Nice to see you. JoeRoss Hi zendre. elliew Hi Joe! Good to see you too ... its been a long time! zendre Hi Joe, Elliew. elliew Hi Zendre! kenle joined. JoeRoss Welcome kenle. kenle Thank you, Joe. elliew Joe, I have a question about the Easy Bond method. I am in long on 2 contracts today ... and wondering if I should spread it tonight because of the FOMC meeting tomorrow ... kenle I'm a new user of your Easy Bond method as well. JoeRoss Ellie, just stay with the rules. elliew Gulp!!!! kenle Where are the rules? Is it the 'Chat Guidelines'? JoeRoss kenle: if you bought the easy bond method, you have the rules. kenle Oh ok, I see. JoeRoss kenle: Not chat rules, easy bond method rules. elliew
Ok ... I will. Once you said that the bonds could be spread with T-notes. James and I examined the 2, 5, and 10 year T-notes as a possible spread. Is there one that you would more typically use. They all seemed to have the same chart pattern - even almost matched the 30 yr bond ... tipiring joined. JoeRoss ellie: If you must spread, use the 10 year notes. But you have to do 2 notes to 1 bond. JoeRoss The FED will probably lower rates by .25. They could fool everyone and go for .50. JoeRoss Either way, bonds should rise. kenle Joe, since that cut is already priced in, will the effect be less so with regard to the currency markets? elliew Oh ... that makes me feel better ... maybe I can get some sleep tonight bert joined. JoeRoss kenle: The effect is priced in but the public will still react in their usual irrational manner. kenle Ok. JoeRoss Hi bert. kenle Hi bert. JoeRoss Hi Tipring. bert Evening everyone, sorry I'm late. JoeRoss I didn't see you guys sneak in ;) tipiring Hi Joe. zendre
Joe, Question: Trading by the book, latest review, trading with 2 oscillators: What is the year of the sample GC trades? What is the date (year) of the 5th part's examples? kenle Oh I guess should have just waited for the euro chat, since I'm in UK. kenle Hmmm. kenle Oh well. JoeRoss zendre: I'm not sure of the dates. Probably 1988. JoeRoss kenle: Get some sleep. Cheerio! kenle Yes I guess I should. I'll save my Questions for Thursday. kenle Thanks Joe. kenle Bye all. JoeRoss Bye. zendre Thanks. elliew
James and I were doing some comparisons of this months bond chart to last months ... it was very interesting. The bonds had made a high of near 114 just around FOMC meeting in Sept and then fell down into a trading range and has ended back up at 114 one month later with almost the same chart pattern ... JoeRoss ellie: Interesting comparison. netwonc joined. elliew
So we were wondering what made it make the moves it did the past month when nothing really has changed? And what would make it go higher this time if the interest rates were dropped again, when last time it made the bonds go down? Any ideas? JoeRoss Hi netwonc. Dean joined. netwonc Hi Joe, where is everyone. JoeRoss ellie: I would need a crystal ball for that. I don't have one. JoeRoss Hi Dean. Dean Hi Joe. JoeRoss netwonc: I really don't know where they are. They seem to come and go. Dean Haven't been here in 9 months. elliew Is it just the market makers moving the price around? JoeRoss ellie: That is the most probable answer--market movers. JoeRoss Well Dean, the harvest is in, so you need to start trading. Dean You have quite the memory Joe. Dean ...for being only 37. JoeRoss Dean: I have to have it. You are important to me...but I'm only 27. In April I'll be 37.
Dean Thanks Joe. zendre Wow, this is a start of a beautiful friendship :) Dean Joe mentored me a couple of years ago. JoeRoss I'll drink to that. JoeRoss Did anyone hear anything about any of the banks selling gold? JoeRoss I've been so busy getting ready for Europe that I haven't even looked at the markets. zendre Nope. Not to me certainly. bert Haven't heard anything. elliew No. JoeRoss Well, I guess the gold drop is just profit taking. zendre They are selling, just giving out for free :) JoeRoss I've been running a Volatility stop on it and it's getting closer to going through. acman joined. JoeRoss Hi Acman. acman Hello Joe, Great week. bert Joe: Bernanke I get the feeling he'll feed this market any amount of rate cuts just to keep it going... what d'ya think? mapletrader joined. JoeRoss bert: His only choice is to try to keep the economy growing. JoeRoss Hi maple. mapletrader Hi Joe. bert I see. zendre As I examined the Gold chart I realized that it was a beautiful trend with all the Ross Hooks in the upper half of the 20, 2 Bollinger Bands. JoeRoss I believe it will lead to a terrible inflation. Rod1 joined. JoeRoss Hi Rod. bert It just seems as if they're terrified if the stock market goes down. Rod1 Hi Joe. JoeRoss bert: But not terrified if the dollar goes down :) zendre Cheap dollar, easy debt paying. JoeRoss I think maybe one more down day for gold, at least at the open. acman The funny thing is that as the dollar drops, the companies become more valuable and it helps bring up the stock market. JoeRoss zendre: True; also good for tourism and exports. zendre Joe: It looks to me a TTE point to step in: What do you think? JoeRoss acman: You said a very true thing. Stock prices are not rising in real terms, only in terms of inflation. elliew Do you think it is too late to get into gold? JoeRoss zendre. Yes a good TTE to get in. acman
I have been having good results with the ER YM spread, the Corn Wheat Spread, the LH LC spread, some wheat spreads and even made $3k these past few weeks on copper. Those are the markets. They make money. No speculation to worry about or second guess what some guy is doing in Washington. JoeRoss ellie: Gold is not yet at 800, it will reach 1,000; then 2,000; then possibly 3,000. This is still a baby bull. JoeRoss But you have to be wiling to stay in for the long haul. Rod1 Joe, the current and previous short-term sell off in Silver seems to be a longer stronger than Gold. Is this normal? JoeRoss acman: Has chosen to trade the commodity bull market. As I said 3 years ago, financial markets will become less important and commodities will become the major markets. JoeRoss Rod: Yes, silver is way more volatile than gold, but ultimately more profitable in terms of percentage increase on your money. Rod1 Good point, Joe. Thanks. elliew
If one started a gold position, would you enter initially just going long gold --- or would you put on a spread until you made enough money in gold so you could take the spread off and let the gold run? It seems to make large swings in a day -- more than my account will allow for. And if I spread it, would you use silver as the other side of the spread? JoeRoss If you want to buy and hold gold and silver, a true bargain is there in shares of NEM. zendre Mining? JoeRoss If you are a swing trader you can make a bundle trading corn on the daily chart, using a 5-3-3 Stochastic. JoeRoss zendre: Yes, Newmont mining. JoeRoss
Newmont is huge and currently under priced. When it goes up it will be fantastic. When the stock market decides to buy gold and silver, Newmont will get the lions share of the money. JoeRoss Buy it with a 25% stop. acman
I will have to check that stochastic on the corn. I like to trade the 9am - 10am timeframe, check the er/ym and grains, then check around 12:30 to 1:15 for peaks/troughs on the er/ym and grain closings. JoeRoss If you trade the corn with Stochastics buy crossovers below 25 and sell crossovers above 75. It has worked almost perfectly since June, if you manage it well. acman Thanks, Christmas comes early! I will tie a bow around it. Rod1 Joe, I can't recall what the margin is on Corn. From memory quite low? JoeRoss Rod: I would have to look it up. I don't think it could be very high with the market being range bound since June. zendre It should be around 1350. Rod1 Thanks, Joe and Zendre. Oats also seems to be looking interesting in the last day or so. Would you agree? JoeRoss Rod: Interesting but very low volume. acman Just checked on my tradestation and margin is $800 for an outright. Rod1 Another good point, Joe. Rod1 Thanks, acman. zendre Corn: The crossing now seems to be exactly at 75%. zendre A bit of a dilemma. zendre e\Exactly: 73%. zendre Strictly: Not sell. JoeRoss Wait until %K is ready or crossing %D with both above 75. acman
I have been spreading CH-WH looking at the 8, 20 and longer time frames and buying and selling based on the wheat limiting one way or another. The overall trend is less of a differential. JoeRoss Sounds good, acman. zendre At my Trade Navigator the %K already crossed %D, however it is set to CET as time setting and maybe that is bad, it mixes up days. acman The last move was about 40 cents. I will look at the stochastics for doing a few corn December and see how it works. zendre Acman: what is 8, 20? Stochastics? elliew I just signed up for Traders Notebook. There are some trades that have been on for awhile. Are those trades that I should ignore because I didn't get in when they started? JoeRoss The best way I've found to trade with Stochastics is to set them at 5-3-3 and then go looking for a range bound market that fits the Stochastic. If you don't find one, then trade something else. acman
8min, 20 min. I haven't traded with stochastics for 4 years. I just watch the bars and look for sideways motion, RH, TTE and 1,2,3's on various time frames. JoeRoss ellie: Ignore them if they are already in progress. Rod1
Joe, what do you suggest for the time issue. Which time zone is best for consistency on signals, presumably the local market exchange zone? Or should we use a common time zone across all markets? zendre
I think there should have been a sign for late enterers (I mean you may enter right now as well, or do not do it). I will suggest it to Andy. JoeRoss Rod: I use Chicago time for everything. Rod1 Ok. Thanks, Joe. JoeRoss I sure hope you guys are keeping your accounts in euros. elliew Why do you suggest euros? JoeRoss The euro is at 1.4447. It's moving up even fast than I expected. JoeRoss I figured 145 by the end of the year, but it may hit that by the end of the month. zendre Just the reserve money. I was fed up with keeping in Euros, and my account's Dollar value was fluctuating all the time. JoeRoss ellie: If you keep you account in euros, you are getting interest and a capital gain for doing nothing. elliew But won't I take a big hit on the conversion if I do it now? JoeRoss Every time I make a winning trade in dollars I immediately convert it to euros. acman Can you do that on a US account JOE? JoeRoss ellie: You can't take a big hit. Your account in dollars will be the same as it was. JoeRoss acman: Almost any broker will let you do that if you ask. Rod1
Joe, you mentioned the volatility in Silver earlier. Do you have suggestions for stops on Silver? I seem to keep getting stopped out, even with volatility-based stops - e.g. ATR JoeRoss Just tell them you want your account to be held in euros. acman Is there much fee? acman I will check with T-Station about that. JoeRoss
Rod: I don't make stop suggestions as a rule. But for shares I usually use 25% or if things look rough, I will go with 15%. Otherwise, it's up to you as to where you put the stop. acman They hold T-Bills so maybe something else. zendre Euro will be quite popular today :) Even US citizens keep their money in Euros :( JoeRoss acman: Not usually. Some brokers do it for whatever the spread is at the time. JoeRoss You will make back a lot more than you pay for the spread. zendre 25% of the Share's value? You buy for 100 USD and keep a stop at 75 USD? Rod1 Ok, Joe. Will have a closer look at the % stops (presumably based on closing price?) JoeRoss zendre: Yes, 25% of the Share price--trailing stop. elliew
joe -- had a question earlier that maybe you missed. If I wanted to enter a gold trade with a spread - would silver be good to spread against gold? JoeRoss Rod: Closing price is sufficient. Rod1 Thanks, Joe. Got it. A % trailing stop based on last close. JoeRoss ellie: The gold-silver spread has been spectacular as long as you were long gold. acman Joe, is there a similar thing to the T-Bill I could just buy as collateral that is Euro based? JoeRoss acman: Who is your broker? acman RJobrien. acman They do the clearing for Tradestation. JoeRoss acman: I don't know how they handle it. You will have to ask them. At Interactive brokers, they pay me interest on my account. JoeRoss I suppose they put the money into short term CDs??? acman At RJ I buy T-Bills in increments of $5k and I can trade 95% of it. JoeRoss When I want to convert dollars to euros, I simply sell dollars and buy euros at the market. So I pay whatever the spread is. JoeRoss acman: Because zi do it all the time I am completely dollar averaged, or should I say euro averaged? JoeRoss acman : I can trade 100% of my account. acman I thought that in the cash market there was a 1/2% cost or so. JoeRoss acman: Not that I know of, at least not with IB. acman Thanks, I will check on it in the morning. JoeRoss It's been a lovely evening ladies and gentlemen. zendre I think when we trade 100% of the account, we don't not get any interest at IB. JoeRoss I need my beauty rest. Rod1 Thanks for everything, Joe. JoeRoss zendre: I never trade 100% of the account. elliew Thank you Joe zendre Again, I learned something. JoeRoss My next chat will be December 4. acman Thanks everybody for great Q&A. zendre Beauty rest :) bert Thanks, Joe. zendre Thanks Joe, and All. acman I hope to double one of my accounts by then Joe. mapletrader Thanks Joe and company. JoeRoss Next Tuesday at this time I will be aboard a Lufthansa flight somewhere over the rainbow. netwonc Good night, and thanks for a good chat evening...and education. JoeRoss SEE YOU IN DECEMBER! acman Take care and have a great trip Joe. JoeRoss Thanks to all. zendre Have a good flight! JoeRoss Good night. Happy dreams. Great trading.
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