Chat with Joe Ross
Chat log from: Wednesday, June 4, 2008
Live Chat with Joe starts Wednesday at 8.00 PM U.S. Central Time! |
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| Amathevs21 | Hi Tatiana, how are you? |
| Amathevs21 | Hi Joe |
| Amathevs21 | Hi everybody |
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| JoeRoss joined. | |
| JoeRoss | Hi everyone |
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| turkan | Hi |
| kiwidave | Hi there. |
| Amathevs21 | Hi Joe. |
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| turkan | this is my first time here. Will there be sound or text only? |
| kiwidave | Excuse me if i don't say much today i am working and have some trades on at present. |
| Amathevs21 | Kiwidave: No Problem Buddy. |
| JoeRoss | turkan: text only. |
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| turkan | Thanks. |
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| JoeRoss | I am thankful there is no sound. It is horrible when everyone is trying to talk all at once. |
| JoeRoss | I see we have an entymologist with us tonight. |
| kiwidave | A what, Joe? |
| sb123 | Joe, what is on your radar tonight? |
| bugman | Only for a brief period, Joe. |
| turkan | q: for TTE trade, is there a limit on candle count? |
| JoeRoss | dave: a bugman is an entymologist. |
| kiwidave | Ok . |
| kiwidave | haha! |
| JoeRoss | tonight on my radar is EWH, the Hang Seng Index. I think it is going to be red hot. |
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| JoeRoss | I'm buying it tomorrow. |
| sb123 | Ok...for us U.S. only traders...what u got? |
| Rory | Hi Joe, hello everyone. |
| sb123 | USA only. |
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| JoeRoss | turkan: for futures, 3 candles; for stocks and forex 4 candles. But you may find it different for individual markets so go with your experience and trade what you see. |
| JoeRoss | Hi rory, pedro. |
| pedro | Hi Joe, its great to be back... |
| JoeRoss | sb123: EWH is listed on the U.S. stock exchange, AMEX. |
| JoeRoss | sb123: Nothing cooking in the U.S. only for me. |
| turkan | For FOREX, what's best time frame for TTE and do I need any other indicator to confirm it? |
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| sb123 | Any opinion on grains...bonds...gold??? |
| JoeRoss |
turkan: Best time is when there is the most liquidity. You don't need another indicator for confirmation but if you want one try 5,3,3 Stochastic crossover. |
| turkan | Great. Thank you |
| JoeRoss | Gold correcting. Corn very strong and will go higher. |
| JoeRoss | There is a genuine corn shortage. |
| kiwidave | Oil is coming down but not at the pumps! |
| JoeRoss | Corn plantings are late by 2-4 weeks. That means even with perfect weather the corn crop will be no better than mediocre and yields will be low. |
| pedro | Will this corn shortage have spill over effect into Wheat and Soybeans? |
| JoeRoss |
dave: That's because the refiners are now going to have a chance to make some money. With oil prices high the refiners have been operating on paper thin margins. With prices down, if they keep pump prices up they have a chance to catch up and go ahead. |
| JoeRoss | pedro: Possibly wheat but not likely beans. |
| JoeRoss | Corn inventories were already low from last year. With a poor harvest now guaranteed, it can only get worse. |
| kiwidave | In a SM BO spread ,wow, it is volatile, would like to be in an outright at this time. |
| pedro | Joe, I was surprised to see a Spread for SF vs. CD on the newsletter.... isn't this in reality two position trades? |
| JoeRoss | by the way dave: great post in our TE Forum -- everyone should read it. |
| sb123 | Which forum? |
| JoeRoss | pedro: It is given as a spread, not as two position trades. |
| kiwidave | Thanks, hope it helps. There is so much to learn - you just don't realize till you actually start doing it. |
| kiwidave | Sorry about the spelling but I am no Shakespeare. |
| sb123 | Which topic in the forum?? |
| kiwidave | Beginners forum. Response to Newsletter 208 Part 1. There are 2 threads from "DavetheKiwi" |
| pedro |
Joe, I was reading one of your books and I was intrigued when you mentioned that each market has a particular personality on how they behave at market tops and bottoms.... do you find that these personalities still hold after 8 years of when you wrote the book? |
| JoeRoss | pedro: they still hold after 50 years. |
| JoeRoss | Of course most markets weren't around 50 years ago. |
| JoeRoss | One of these days you guys are going to discover that the markets reflect the personalities of the people who trade them. |
| turkan |
Mr. Ross, this may not be the right place to ask this question but I was introduced to FOREX a couple of months ago and I'd appreciate your help with which method would be the best way to trade intraday. (It seems like I have a scalping mentality) I got your 4 books, I have hard time applying it to FOREX. |
| JoeRoss |
turkan: forex is no different than any other market as far as the charts go. All charts reflect the action and reaction of traders to the movement of prices. There is no best way to day trade any market. The only "best" is what is best for you. |
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| JoeRoss | We are blessed by the presence of THEONE! ;-) |
| theone | Hello! |
| Amathevs21 | Joe: Yes! |
| Amathevs21 | TheOne: Hello you, too, TheOne. |
| JoeRoss | As long as you think there is a one-size fits all to trading, you are doomed to lose. |
| turkan | Thanks Mr. Ross. |
| theone | Joe, I enjoyed the weekly letter a few weeks ago on how most of the intraday runs on the future markets are manufactured. Is that done to boost stocks? |
| JoeRoss | theone: It is done to boost insider profits. |
| turkan | Good night all and good luck |
| JoeRoss | C U turkan |
| Amathevs21 | Turkan: Goodnight Turkan. |
| pedro |
Joe, I have noticed that prices tend to bounce at the 20MA and 40MA a lot when retracing on an uptrend/downtrend (even on weekly). Do you use these MA when calculating profit targets or where to initiate positions? |
| theone | So, they drive up the prices to sell at a good price? |
| JoeRoss | pedro: I don't use them. |
| JoeRoss | theone: They drive up prices to sell at a good price. They drive up prices so they can short from higher up. and vice versa with selling. |
| JoeRoss | pedro: 20 MA and 40 MA have become self-fulfilling prophecies to those traders and investors who have been brain-washed to believe in them. Same as with Fibonacci traders. |
| Amathevs21 | Pedro: i've heard the guy who use 20SMA & 40 SMA, if I am not wrong he was Oilivier Velez from Pristine? |
| pedro | Thank you Joe. |
| JoeRoss | Amathevs: Those moving averages are older than I am. |
| theone | This may be a silly question, but what time frame do the movers in the futures market enter on? |
| Amathevs21 | Joe: IC |
| JoeRoss | theone: Any and all time frames. |
| marsh | About the 20 and 40 SMA: in a strongly trending market, everyone is a genius. Unfortunately ... |
| JoeRoss | marsh is right on. |
| marsh | I learned it from Joe. |
| theone | How do they decide when and what time frame to drive the market? When the price is reaching a support or resistance level on a higher time frame? |
| Amathevs21 | Marsh: I better use Joe's "Sweet Chariot" SMA 40 stand alone or "CamellBack" Joe's it's really the best SMA i've ever found. |
| JoeRoss | theone: time frame has nothing to do with it. They make the move when the situation is right for them to make the move. But obviously you will see the move in all the time frames. |
| kiwidave | Pedro: You only need to know where the sheep are and which direction they might head that's what I am finding with indicators I really don't want to be one of the sheep. |
| JoeRoss | theone: What is support? What is resistance? |
| theone | The price at which past people having been willing to sell or buy at. |
| JoeRoss | They are nothing. As you say, just convenient terms to describe where people buy and sell. They definitely cannot contain the movement of prices. |
| JoeRoss | Support and resistance are oxymorons. |
| marsh | Amathevs21: I like Joe's basic idea of trend, with 1-2-3's and Rh's. There's no line covering the price action to confuse me. |
| Amathevs21 | Marsh: I agree with you Marsh, Joe's 1-2-3 is the best of the best for me. |
| JoeRoss | I cannot take credit for the 1-2-3. It existed long before I was born. |
| theone | I have been trading the Russell and a low time frame and it keeps hitting down, it seems, because the resistance on a gap window back in Jan. 08. The same thing happened in mid-May. |
| Amathevs21 | Marsh: usually i filter Joe's 1-2-3 with a Bollinger Bands. |
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| Amathevs21 | Joe: But you found 1-2-3 Joe, you are the man! |
| zendre | Hi all! |
| JoeRoss | Hi zendre: You are up early. |
| Amathevs21 | Zendre: Hi |
| marsh | Amathevs21: As Ben Franklin said, if it works, it's good. |
| zendre | I could not sleep. |
| Rory | Is 1-2-3 stronger in the direction of point and figure, Joe? |
| kiwidave | Joe, so did America exist long before it was discovered but someone got the credit for finding it, didn't they? |
| Amathevs21 | Marsh: Yes |
| JoeRoss | Rory: I truly do not know the answer. But there are some really great P&F traders out there who use the 1-2-3 and the hook. |
| Rory | Thanks Joe. |
| JoeRoss | dave: they gave the credit to some guy named Amerigo Vespucci. (God what if they had called it Vespucciland, instead of America???) |
| Amathevs21 | Rory: In Point & Figure they have a "Catapult" pattern & if I am not wrong it seems to be a 123, too. |
| Rory | thanks 21 |
| Amathevs21 | Rory: You're welcome Bro; seems "Catapult" action is equal with 1-2-3 Breakout. |
| Amathevs21 | Rory: I read it in Thomas J Dorsey's book. |
| Amathevs21 | Rory: or maybe in another book called Forex Charts Companion By Michael Duane Archer. |
| Rory | Need some good reading thanks will have a look! |
| Amathevs21 | Rory: you can contact my email, i'll show you the book |
| zendre | I can see a perfect 1-2-3 high and then an RH in the CL. Anyone traded it? |
| pedro |
Joe, why do people look at Soybean Oil, Soybeans and Soy Meal, or Gold/ Silver,... aren't they all too related? I see that you have them in your portfolio.... do they behave different at times? I do not see the benefit unless you use spreads.... |
| Amathevs21 | Zendre: u mean at $135 as a RH? |
| marsh | The Pit: A Story of Chicago by Frank Norris That's a good fictional book about wheat trading in Chicago at the turn of the century. A guy tries to corner the wheat market. "Trading Places" movie took scenes from it. |
| zendre | 124.69 |
| kiwidave | Working it now. |
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| philippe | Hi all sorry to be late. |
| marsh | If you want something to read. |
| kiwidave | CL can be a vicious market don't really like being here. |
| Rory | I have taken your email Amathevs, thanks. |
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| Amathevs21 | Joe: I have a meeting at the city in a few hours with my client again, seems i have to go, Take care Joe & Thanks, See you next week. |
| marsh | Hi Joy. |
| Amathevs21 | Rory: OK Rory, i wait for your email. |
| JoeRoss |
pedro: beans, meal and oil are related. meal and oil are byproducts of the crushing process. But they have entirely different uses and trade quite differently from each other. Same with gold and silver. Both are used in jewelry, but silver has quite different industrial uses than does gold. |
| Amathevs21 | Goodbye, everyone see you next week. |
| marsh | Bye Amathevs21. |
| JoeRoss | Hi joy. |
| Amathevs21 | Goodbye Joe see you next Week. |
| Joy | Hi marsh! Hello Joe! I am sorry to have missed more than 1/2 of the chat - severe thunderstorms just passing by. |
| pedro | So Joe, you look at them as if they were two different charts and could actually trade them both without doubling your exposure? |
| Amathevs21 | Marsh: Goodbye Marsh see you next week |
| JoeRoss | Hi philippe |
| zendre | An inside day in GOLD is anybody interested in trading GOLD? |
| JoeRoss | Bye 21. |
| Amathevs21 | Bye Joe & Take Care |
| pedro | Take care! |
| philippe | Joe, when do u decide to chart a spread as differential or ratio spread? does one chart show more than the other? |
| JoeRoss | pedro; they are totally different markets. They are definitely not the same exposure. |
| JoeRoss | Inside days in gold are great for day trading the next day. |
| kiwidave | zendre trading Gold now. |
| JoeRoss | philippe: sometimes a ratio spread looks a lot like a differential spread, but other times not even close. |
| JoeRoss | You can use them to confirm one another. |
| philippe | Ok thanks. |
| philippe | That's what i did, but was not sure. |
| theone | Thanks, Joe. Happy Trading! |
| marsh | I guess gold will go down tomorrow. |
| kiwidave | Well, you guess is as good as mine. |
| pedro | Joe, just to see if I am correct, is the S&P September in a Ledge formation currently? |
| JoeRoss | marsh: it should be a good intraday short if they don't take out the low during the night. |
| JoeRoss | pedro: it looks like it is. Do you have matching highs and lows? |
| pedro | Joe, on electronic markets what time do you use as the "Open"? Does it depend on the market or is 8am EST a good indicator.... |
| kiwidave | Joe: it is usually retracing taking out the stops at the top of the bar and then when the big traders get in at about 7 /8 am your time taking out the low. |
| JoeRoss | Yes, you do |
| pedro | Yes... do you need to have both (high AND low)? |
| JoeRoss | pedro: it depends on the market. But I use the pit traded times. |
| JoeRoss | dave: I think you are correct. |
| marsh | pedro, what time frame for SPU08? |
| JoeRoss | pedro: Yes both matching highs and lows, but you have them already. |
| kiwidave | I have been making 1000 a day at this since the 5th of May. |
| JoeRoss | You should trade the short side of that ledge. |
| kiwidave | Roughly. |
| pedro | Thank you for the tip :-) |
| philippe | Joe any good trade for us today (hehe trying to profit from the master!) |
| kiwidave | 10 tick Dave they should call me. |
| pedro | The market is not currently in an established trend, right? it has not taken out the 2. |
| pedro | I'm talking S&P Sep. |
| kiwidave | They really want to take out the low and then when all you guys go off to bed it retraces esp when the UK gets up. |
| kiwidave | The UK runs the stops. |
| JoeRoss | phillippe: Do you want a long term trade or a short term trade or something in the middle? |
| JoeRoss | pedro: right. |
| philippe | I'm on short term now but if u have a good long term, i take it! |
| philippe | Long term, good. |
| Joy | Joe: Cannot we hear them all even if Phillippe only wants one? :-) |
| marsh | Pedro: daily bar? 5 min bar? |
| pedro | Daily bar. |
| JoeRoss | Short term: trade a breakout of the gold inside bar. Trade it short. |
| pedro | I get enough excitement with Daily.... |
| JoeRoss | Long term: trade the Hang Seng Index ETF-- symbol is EWH. |
| philippe | Thx Joe, u the man! |
| JoeRoss | Medium term: I don't have one right now. |
| Joy | Joe: Is the Hang Seng index a China play? |
| JoeRoss | Joy: Believe it or not the Hang Seng is a U.S. dollar/U.S. interest rate play. |
| zendre | It starts getting interesting... |
| philippe | Joe, we don't dare to ask about the options newsletter |
| pedro | Joe, the JPY has been on Trading range for 23 trading days... and it just made a 1-2-3 formation inside.... is it too early to take it....short? |
| JoeRoss | philippe: I have not been able to find anyone to write it. |
| JoeRoss | pedro: Too early. |
| Joy | Joe: That is too deep for me :-) Do you have a minute to explain why? |
| JoeRoss | pedro: Wait for a hook. |
| philippe | I know, saw that in the forum... |
| JoeRoss | I can do it in 2 minutes if everyone else stops asking. |
| philippe | Ok we stop. |
| Joy | And how 'long' is this long-term for you Joe? I imagine the interest rate/dollar play has a time frame? |
| pedro | We are all ears.... |
| marsh | Pedro: I think the chart for the daily S&P (ES) is much cleaner and nicer than the daily ER2. |
| JoeRoss | Some years ago, Hong Kong tied their currency to the U.S. dollar at a fixed rate. It is still tied at that rate. They did it to stabilize their currency. |
| JoeRoss | So whenever the U.S. lowers interest rates, Hong Kong also has to lower interest rates. The low interest rates drive up the stock prices on the Hang Seng. |
| JoeRoss | Right now the Hang Seng is hot, but with even lower interest rates forthcoming from Bernanke, the Hang Seng will become red hot. It's like pouring gasoline on a fire. |
| JoeRoss | You will make 75% on your money in about a year--more or less. |
| JoeRoss | I'm going in tomorrow. |
| philippe | Thanks master Joe. |
| Joy | Joe: 75%? I think we all need to be in with you :-) Thank you - you are like a historian! |
| JoeRoss | That's it. I'm heading for the mattress surf board |
| pedro | Thank you Joe. |
| philippe | cowanbunga good night then. |
| JoeRoss | Good night all. |
| Joy | Right, enjoy that surf and thank you again Joe! |
| zendre | Thanks for Joe and all! |
| marsh | Good night Joe, and thanks. |
| kiwidave | Later all. |
| pedro | I must say that for me it is a first to chat so close with the author of a great trading book... |
| pedro | Thank you for spending time with us, Joe |
| philippe | Have all a nice day or night, and greetings from sunny Shanghai. |
Next Chat with
Joe Ross:
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Time: 8:00 - 9:00 P.M., U.S. Central Time.
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