Chat with Joe Ross
Chat log from: Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Live Chat with Joe starts Wednesday at 8.00 PM U.S. Central Time! |
| elias joined. | |
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| pedro | Hi marsh! |
| marsh | Hi Pedro. |
| elias | Hi Pedro, where are you from? |
| pedro | Colombia but live in Florida. |
| pedro | And you? |
| elias | From Mexico. |
| pedro | How long have you been a Ross student? |
| pedro | I go to Mexico a lot! |
| elias | A few days. |
| pedro | Where do you live? |
| elias | In Mexico city. |
| pedro | I was there for the AMIA |
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| pedro | Hi Joe! |
| elias | What does AMIA mean? |
| elias | Hi Joe |
| JoeRoss | Hi everyone |
| pedro | Asociacion Mexicana de Industria Automotriz.... Motorcycle show.. |
| JoeRoss | Good evening etc. to all |
| pedro | Hi Joe! |
| elias | Nice to meet you Pedro. |
| pedro | Good to be here! |
| pedro | Igual! |
| pedro | How are you doing, Joe? |
| pedro | I was very impressed with the Wheat trade and SB trade today... did you have much to do with those picks? |
| JoeRoss | pedro: I'm fine. How are you? |
| pedro | I am great... re-learning... |
| pedro | Before I met you I was reading a lot on VSA (Tradeguider).... Volume Spread Analysis.... |
| pedro | Now I am having to re-learn a lot! |
| JoeRoss | pedro: I suggest trades to Andy, and he checks with me often. |
| pedro | I was asking Andy how you distinguish from congestion to a 1-2-3 when the trading range was just 18 days.... |
| JoeRoss | We are always in contact, but mostly Traders Notebook is the work of Andy. |
| elias | It's a good question about wheat and sb. |
| JoeRoss | A trading range can be full of 1-2-3s in both directions. |
| elias | What is your opinion about the increase in these commodities? |
| JoeRoss | Wheat made a beautiful move today. So did sugar. |
| pedro |
I have been reading Trading By The Book and liked the Three Way Testing Method a lot.... however, I currently use Track N Trade weekly charts but they do not offer any smoothing on MACD. The problem of not having smoothing is that the last bar changes direction a lot... What charting service do you use? |
| JoeRoss | elias: I don't understand the question. Increase how? |
| elias | The wheat was up today. |
| JoeRoss | pedro: I use Genesis Trade Navigator, Aspen Graphics, Market Detective, Ninja, and Next Trend. Maybe some others that I don't remember at the moment. |
| elias | Sorry for my english, Joe. |
| pedro | Nice hook on Wheat! |
| pedro | Great! |
| JoeRoss | The charts in the book were made with Market Detective. |
| pedro | Thanks.... |
| JoeRoss | elias: The demand for wheat is real. There was not much carryover from last year due to drought in the southern hemisphere. |
| JoeRoss | Nice hook on wheat with a TTE and sugar has a 1-2-3 with a TTE at the end of a down trend. |
| pedro | Would you add contracts with a take out of the hook? |
| JoeRoss | pedro: I am not very big on adding contracts. I prefer to put on my entire position right at the beginning, and then scale out as prices move my way. |
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| JoeRoss | Hi joy |
| pedro | Is Gold forming a Ledge, Joe? |
| elias | Joe, there are soybean spread short July/ long Nov, what is your suggestion? |
| Joy | Hi Joe, hope you have had a nice evening! |
| Joy | Hi Marsh, how are you? |
| marsh | Hi Joy. |
| JoeRoss | pedro: gold is forming a ledge, yes. |
| pedro | Is that a Short? |
| JoeRoss | elias: the spread looks good for rising but it is very choppy. |
| pedro | I have Weekly trending down.... |
| JoeRoss | Joy: Yes, I watched www.god.tv |
| JoeRoss | I've been watching the "outpouring" that is taking place in Lakeland Florida. In fact I'm going down there for the weekend. |
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| Joy | www.god.tv? I have never known it or heard of the outpouring... |
| JoeRoss |
pedro: is what a short? gold? If you mean gold, you would take the breakout of the ledge to the downside. But on second look, gold is not really forming a ledge. It is too many bars for a ledge. The whole thing is part of a huge consolidation. |
| JoeRoss | Joy: send me an email and remind me. |
| JoeRoss | Hi acman. |
| acman | Hello. I have been busy fixing AC's |
| pedro | Thanks Joe. |
| JoeRoss | acman: This is that time of the year. You fix them or people suffer. It has been plenty hot. |
| pedro | No wonder your name is acman... its pretty hot down here! |
| acman | Where are you pedro? |
| Joy | Joe: Thank you, I will! Gold is in congestion breaking out to the downside, isn't it? |
| JoeRoss | Joy: gold hasn't broken out to any side at the moment. |
| Joy | Hi acman, nice to see you again... I was hoping your AC held up in this heat wave... I remember last time you spent all day fixing AC too! |
| pedro | Joe, which of your books deals in congestion in detail? |
| acman | Been trading until 9:30 then out until 8 or 9 at night. Long days. |
| elias | Tks Joe, on the other hand, Have you seen the corn spread long Z8/short Z10? |
| JoeRoss | pedro: Trading by the Book has the most. |
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| pedro | Joe, I just downloaded Market Detective.. what is the Rossillator? |
| JoeRoss | z8 and z10. What are those? |
| acman | Sounds like dec 08 and 09 |
| elias | Corn Dec2008 and Dec2010 |
| JoeRoss | pedro: The Rossilator is an oscillator of the difference between the high and low of a linear regression band. |
| JoeRoss | There is not enough volume in Dec. 2010. |
| JoeRoss | Today was a big day with 283 contracts. I would not trade it. |
| elias | tks Joe. |
| JoeRoss | elias: average volume is only 187 contracts per day. |
| Joy |
Joe: how did you do with the EWH long-term trade? Thursday saw a gap open and I assumed you did not get in until Friday. The Friday price bar seemed to have broken out of the trading range and resumed the down trend. The CCI filter seemed to agree as well. Did you expect the index to go down in the immediate turn and want to get in when the price is low? |
| acman | A grain move that may be due for a reversal is the short cz08 buy oz08. Look for a reversal on corn. This is not for the small account person. |
| pedro | Joe, MACDh is the one you use for the Three way Testing... Is the Signal Line (under properties) = Smoothing? |
| JoeRoss | Joy: I have been averaging in as it falls. I now have 1,000 shares. |
| elias | tks acman. |
| JoeRoss | I did not expect it to go down the way it did, but I consider it a buying opportunity. If it keeps falling, I will buy scale in another 1,000 shares. |
| pedro | Market Detective software looks like it is made for Joe Ross.... |
| JoeRoss | pedro: I really don't remember, and I don't have time to look right now. |
| Joy | Joe: Cool - thank you! |
| JoeRoss | pedro: There is a lot in it that was put in MD for me. |
| JoeRoss | Hi tipring, I didn't see you come in. |
| Joy | Pedro/Joe: What is Market Detective? Joe's program? |
| JoeRoss | Joy: Market detective is the first program I ever used that I didn't create myself. |
| JoeRoss | I used to do my own programming, but that was before graphics were possible. I had software that told me a lot of things I wanted to know, but it did it in text format. |
| JoeRoss | I began using Market Detective in 1981. |
| pedro | Do you recommend this charting software over other ones? |
| Joy | WOW, 1981! Thank you Joe! Do you still use it? Sounds like Pedro is :-) |
| pedro | It's unbelievable how long you have been in the markets Joe. |
| JoeRoss | pedro: It is good for end of day trading. You have to find a data source for it. |
| pedro | I have CSI Data.... |
| JoeRoss | Joy: I often use it when I am updating my books. |
| JoeRoss | MD will read CSI Data. That's what I use. Genesis Trade Navigator puts out end of day CSI formatted data, and it automatically links it into MD. |
| JoeRoss | It also reads ASCII and MetaStock data. |
| pedro | I like how this software creates the envelopes around trading ranges.... |
| pedro | With my current software it is a pain! |
| JoeRoss | pedro: me too. |
| JoeRoss | It also has the CCI predictor. |
| pedro | I saw that, you enter the price and it calculates CCI. |
| pedro | I am glad I asked you!!!! |
| JoeRoss | And you enter a CCI and it calculates the price. It goes both ways. |
| pedro | I am tickled! |
| pedro | I also saw that in Genesis they sell a toolset for Joe Ross.... does that differ from what I see here? |
| JoeRoss | pedro: Yes, it differs a lot. |
| Joy | I remember reading about the CCI predictor chapter this weekend! I thought you used Trade Partner - I learn a new tip from you every day! |
| pedro | Which one would you recommend?... I never used Genesis.... |
| JoeRoss | Joy: Trade Partner and Market Detective are one and the same. |
| Joy | Got it :-) |
| JoeRoss | pedro: No software has ever done everything I want it to do. You choose the one that does the most of what you want. I can't recommend one over the other. |
| pedro | Ok... |
| elias | Joe, Is there anything in the news that indicates that corn prices could become less nowadays, you mentioned something similar in your newsletter, do you believe that a bull call spread is a good idea? |
| JoeRoss | elias: I expect corn to continue to rise. So a bull call spread is one way to take advantage of it. |
| pedro | The S&P is on a strong downtrend! |
| elias | Tks a lot Joe. |
| pedro | Joe, it was one week ago!!!! |
| pedro | It's interesting how the ledge broke to upside and next day dropped hard! |
| pedro | Joe, I found on the internet a booklet floating around called "Joe Ross Trading Manual"... is this from a seminar? |
| JoeRoss | There is a real interesting article you might like to read after the chat: http://www.biodieselnow.com/forums/t/18423.aspx |
| Joy | Joe/acman: Staying on the corn thread, I have a question on the short cz08, long oz08 spread. Bear with my beginner question: I am curious how one anticipates the corn reversal. Is it because of the gap up on July daily chart? |
| Joy | And is the long for oz08 because of the large price action? Or is it because OZ is rising faster (like the spread ratio Joe wrote about)? |
| JoeRoss | pedro: No, not from a seminar. We used it as a free giveaway to get people interested. |
| pedro | Algae for Fuel... wow! |
| JoeRoss |
Joy: I see no sustained downward move in corn prices. The carryover from last year is very low and possibly nonexistent. The current corn crop is already doomed to no better than mediocre. Corn plantings are 2-4 weeks late. When that happens, even if the weather from then on is perfect, corn yields will not be very good. |
| Joy | Yes, and a good deal of acres in midwest under water... Thank you Joe! |
| Joy | Joe: I am ready for today’s Tip of the Week ? if you don’t mind sharing one or two trade ideas you are thinking of before you leave tonight. |
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| JoeRoss | Joy: I haven't been very focused this week, but if you want to short a stock, short Centex (CTX) at any price above $14. Centex will probably go broke within a year. |
| JoeRoss | Today it finished at $13.96, but profit taking tomorrow should boost it back above $14 at least for a little while. |
| JoeRoss | There is no way Centex can save itself as far as I can see. The losses are huge. |
| marsh | CTX broke out of a 3 month trading range at the beginning of June. |
| Joy | Thank you Joe and marsh! I guess the homebuilders are still having a hard time. |
| JoeRoss | Hi Rory. |
| Rory | Hello Joe, I am a bit late! |
| JoeRoss | Rory: There is still 3 minutes :-) |
| acman | Joe, do you think the stock averages are done to the downside? I am trading that old UWM still. |
| JoeRoss | acman: I really have no current opinion about the stock averages, but it seems to me you could make a great spread short the snp and long Russell, or Nasdaq. |
| Rory | Joe, how did you go with the Hang Seng? Last week you were thinking of buying! |
| JoeRoss | Rory: I've been scaling in all week as it has dropped. I will continue to do so if it keeps going down. |
| JoeRoss | I view this as a buying opportunity. |
| Rory | My account isn't that rich - what about stops, Joe? |
| acman |
I will look at that HSI etf. I have done pretty well with the UWM since March. I take the little 3% profits every few days. It is surprising how that compounds. |
| JoeRoss | Rory: When i finish my scale buying in I will use roughly a 25% protective stop. |
| Rory | Thanks Joe |
| JoeRoss | It's good night time for me. |
| JoeRoss | See you all next week. |
| pedro | Joe, you're the man! Thanks for taking the time |
| Joy | Joe: Thank you so much, as always, for your wisdom! |
| elias | See you Joe |
| pedro | Joe, what is your email address? |
| acman | Thanks Joe. have a great week and keep cool! |
| elias | Tks a lot for your help |
| marsh | Goodnight Joe, Thanks |
| JoeRoss | support@tradingeducators.com |
| pedro | Thanks! |
| Joy | Hope you continue to recover and your garden grows well. |
| Rory | thank you Joe |
Next Chat with
Joe Ross:
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Time: 8:00 - 9:00 P.M., U.S. Central Time.
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