Chat with Joe Ross
Chat log from: Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Live Chat with Joe starts Wednesday at 8.00 PM U.S. Central Time! |
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| JoeRoss | Hi Y'all |
| BigBlueSky | Good evening all. |
| kiwidave | Hi everyone. |
| JoeRoss | Good evening sky. |
| jimsy | Good afternoon here in nz. |
| JoeRoss | jimsy, you and kiwi should get together. |
| kiwidave | Yeah. |
| jimsy | Let's do that after the chat. |
| kiwidave | Jimsy, where abouts are you? |
| jimsy | North shore, Auckland. |
| kiwidave | Ok |
| jimsy | You? |
| JoeRoss |
Interesting bit of news: California's first drought since 1992 has pinched the spigot for farmers in the largest U.S. agricultural area. Along the western edge of the San Joaquin Valley, water supply has been reduced by about 50 percent, leading farmers to abandon crops and spend millions of dollars on short-term solutions. The drought has pushed water prices on the open market to about $1,000 per acre-foot, or 10 times the amount charged by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Woolf said. An acre-foot of water is equivalent to about 326,000 gallons, or as much as one to two families use in a year. |
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| JoeRoss | Hi Joy. |
| kiwidave | Gold Coast only 2 hours different got out of NZ while it's having problems. |
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| Joy | Good evening Joe! I hope you had a wonderful class with your student. |
| Joy | Hi Marsh! |
| JoeRoss | Yes, we have been laughing a lot and having fun. |
| JoeRoss | Hi true. |
| Joy | Oh, that sounds nice - hopefully we make you laugh tonight too. |
| marsh | Hi Joy. |
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| JoeRoss | Hi tony. |
| tony | Hello Joe....got bumped off. |
| kiwidave | Joe, what might the senate have lined up for for oil with their raft of legislation that they are writing? |
| JoeRoss | tony: I saw that earlier. |
| JoeRoss | kiwi: I'm afraid to even think about it. If they do as usual, we are going to have a lot of trouble. They don't know their collective feet from their elbows. |
| tony | I was checking on some other stuff....also the Eur/USD... |
| JoeRoss | kiwi: You can be almost 100% sure they will do whatever they do wrong. |
| truehealth4all | I want to send all the pro tax congressmen a bumper sticker that says: |
| truehealth4all | "YOU CAN'T TAX YOUR WAY TO PROSPERITY" |
| tony | What do you guys think of Big Benny....and his gang? |
| kiwidave | May make it hard for us out here trading if they think they can control that market they will think they can control all of them. |
| JoeRoss | That's right true. |
| JoeRoss | kiwi: That is my biggest concern. Once they get their foot in the door they may decide to stop speculation in everything. |
| kiwidave | Joe: have that in the back of my mind also. |
| Joy |
And with loose money floating around, people will just have to be forced to speculate on something else... like the internet bubble, the real estate bubble, the oil bubble. |
| JoeRoss | If they screw things up enough, all the trading will simply move out of the U.S. |
| kiwidave | Joe, you have to keep us in touch down here as it is hard to get any true intelligence from over there. |
| JoeRoss | They may regulate futures, but people will just go to the ETFs, or to exchanges in other countries. |
| truehealth4all | As a US trader, I wonder what your take is on which parts of the market are headed up and which down in the near term. |
| JoeRoss | kiwi: Read the stuff I put in the forum under "Things you need to know." |
| JoeRoss | true: I take it as it comes. I do not trade on opinion. |
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| JoeRoss | Hi yan. |
| yan | Hi Joe. |
| kiwidave | Joe, that could really wreck the economy over there by doing that commodity trading has been in hundreds of years. Yes, have been reading that. |
| Joy | Joe: Andy's spread today is a CL calendar spread. Is that staying with your thinking that CL will be coming down toward year end? |
| JoeRoss | Joy: If i thought CL would be coming down toward years end, I may be changing my mind. The idiots in Congress are very likely to make such a bad decision that they will drive oil prices to $250/bbl. |
| JoeRoss | I don't know which way oil will go, and I don't even have a clue. These are rough times to be a prognosticator. |
| Joy | Oh nooooo.... |
| JoeRoss | Congress is dangerous and they are hell bent to do something even if it's the wrong thing. |
| kiwidave | CL is stuck in a range waiting for something to happen. |
| marsh | It's interesting that the "speculators" are the scapegoats. |
| JoeRoss | They have a slew of proposed legislation and the thinking coming out of Washington is that they will definitely pass something. |
| kiwidave | Yes, I wish I had that much money that i could drive up oil prices haha. |
| JoeRoss | The only way I know to play this right now is to buy an at-the-money straddle and drop the wrong end if/when prices break out. |
| JoeRoss | This Congress is the biggest bunch of fools ever to inhabit D.C. |
| JoeRoss | Has anyone seen what the FED did today? I was teaching and I have not had a chance to look. |
| marsh | I agree, and the Dems are worse than the Reps, and I'm a Dem. |
| tony | Joe....they stayed "Pat" |
| JoeRoss | marsh: you are a Dem who thinks like a conservative :-) |
| JoeRoss | Thanks tony. |
| marsh | Like John Kennedy. |
| marsh | He wanted to abolish the Fed, take us off the Gold standard, and pull out of Vietnam. Enough to get one assassinated. |
| JoeRoss | That's right, marsh. |
| tony | Did anyone here know that in Vietnam....the inflation rate is 25%. |
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| JoeRoss | tony: just 9 points higher than in the U.S. |
| tony | Thanks Joe....I didn't know that. But the rest of Asia isn't much better. |
| JoeRoss | True inflation in the U.S. is 16%. |
| Joy | Joe: So amidst this very depressing time (at least for me), I must ask how is your newsletter coming along to save us all :-) |
| tony | Always learning something from JOE. |
| marsh | It cracks me up the during the whole of gasoline's run up from $1.00 to $4.00, the gov and the talking heads said "this price increase is not inflationary." |
| JoeRoss | Joy: I'm getting close. I wrote the ad for it, and as soon as I pull a few things into place, we will announce it. |
| Joy | So true Marsh... same tone still on business news tonight! |
| Joy | Joe: YEAH! Thank you! |
| marsh |
Last week, someone asked about shorting an ETF. There are ETF's which one can buy that go up if the underlying goes down. For example, for the Russell 2000, UWM goes up if the Russell 2000 Goes up. TWM goes up if the Russell2000 goes down. This also makes for a good hedge situation. |
| yan | Joe: Where can you find the true inflation figure? |
| JoeRoss |
yan: If you factor in the cost of energy and food you immediately get 12%. Add to that the amount the dollar has fallen so far this year, and you have 16%. |
| marsh |
So let's say one is long UWM, bullish on the Russell 2000 long term. If there are downturns, one doesn't have to liquidate. One can buy the TWM to hedge, until there is a buy signal. |
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| JoeRoss | yan: There are private companies who calculate the true inflation rate. That's where I got my figures from. |
| JoeRoss | But I got them third hand, from a guy who knows one of the private companies. |
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| amathevs21 | Hi Joe, Hi Everybody how are you today? |
| JoeRoss | Hi amathevs. |
| yan | Thanks Joe. Scary to learn about the reality of the situation in the US. I left California 3 years to Sydney. Planning to head back next year, but it looks like it'll be different from the US I knew... |
| JoeRoss | Amathevs: We all seem to be fine but a bit concerned about the actions Congress may take. |
| JoeRoss |
yan: kiwi: Check this out: The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics forecast the value of the country's commodity exports would rise 40 per cent to A$212bn (US$202bn) in the financial year to June 2009, led by a 48 per cent surge in mineral exports to A$178bn. |
| JoeRoss |
If these figures are achieved, commodity exports will have more than doubled in value terms since 2003-04 when the current commodity super cycle started. |
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| JoeRoss | They are predicting that prices for metallurgical coal would be three times higher in 2008-09 compared with this year. |
| JoeRoss | Hi sb |
| sb123 | Hello. |
| kiwidave |
Joe: Yes! But I feel Australia is topping out now and in 6 months it will be on the decline ...I am sitting on my hands there will be some bargains up for grabs soon. |
| JoeRoss |
Could be kiwi, but it's hard to believe when the value of Australia's exports of iron or, the other main ingredient in steel making, will rise by 72 per cent in the coming year, mainly because of price rather than volume increases. |
| kiwidave | The property market here is starting to feel the pinch. It's only the States here with the mining that are keeping things going. |
| kiwidave | Some States here in OZ are flat broke now. |
| JoeRoss | kiwi: I'm sure you are in a real estate bubble, just from what you told me when you were here. |
| kiwidave | Joe, they have all their eggs one one basket and that's China. |
| JoeRoss | Right! But so far China is like that battery rabbit. It just keeps going and going. |
| JoeRoss | kiwi: How about India, do you have some eggs there? |
| kiwidave |
I am looking at buying 2.1 million worth of property and the banks have told me to hold off I will buy it for a better price they will have to come down to meet the market. I will get it for 1.7M. |
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| kiwidave |
They are trying in India but they haven't made too many in roads yet I there is a great possibility there NZ is moving its labour to India and in the technologies like communications |
| JoeRoss | Hi Rory. |
| yan |
I also bought property here, exchanging when the USD was 76c to AUD. I'm thinking about cashing out now as I don't see the AUD remaining at their 18 year high for long. Where else to put it though? EUR? |
| JoeRoss | yan: Tough question, yan. |
| Rory | Hello Joe, a bit late maybe my last week! |
| JoeRoss | Rory: Your last week?? Are you leaving the planet? |
| kiwidave | Yan would be too hasty good to be cashed up at this stage. |
| kiwidave | Opportunity is around the corner if you are cashed up. |
| JoeRoss | Yan: Maybe you should cash out and put the money into a spread of currencies until you find where to put it. |
| yan | Joe: EUR have no fundamentals, besides being an alternative to the USD. As foreigners, it's not possible to invest in RMB directly to benefit from the Chinese boom. |
| Rory | Your a funny man, Joe. No, still on planet earth, just a lot of silly things happening to me, Joe! |
| JoeRoss | Rory, I thought maybe you were checking out of being among the living ;-) |
| tony | Yan....you're 100% right. |
| Rory | No, you and Andy are my life line to sanity! |
| JoeRoss | Wow, Rory, that is a great compliment. I will have to tell Andy. |
| amathevs21 | [ASK] Did you everybody now what happen with MSN & Hotmail, because since yesterday i have trouble to enter the MSN & Hotmail sites ? |
| Joy |
Joe: When you say a spread of currencies, do you mean a mixture of multiple currencies to hold? I heard it is almost certain that European Central Bank President Trichet will increase the interest rate on July 3rd when it next meets. |
| tony | Yan....100% right....you don't invest in currencies. There is more risk in currencies than in something where you invest long term. |
| marsh | Yan: There's a CME RMB currency. |
| JoeRoss | amathevs: I just tried it and there was no problem. I tried both. |
| JoeRoss | yan: Yes, a mix of currencies like the ones you can get at Everbank. |
| amathevs21 | Joe: OK, so I am now, it's something happen with my comp, & or my Internet connection, thanks a lot Joe . |
| JoeRoss | yan: Why don't you check out www.everbank.com |
| JoeRoss | You can buy CDs there that are denominated in RMB. |
| yan | Joe: Thank you Joe! I've been looking for something like that. |
| tony | Joe....do you know anything about Go Futures...a brokerage? |
| JoeRoss | tony: I don't know anything about them. |
| chuckmd | Hey Joe, I have a large Swiss Fr CD with Everbank, near time to roll over, should I roll it? |
| tony | Thanks Joe....I'll stay home. |
| JoeRoss | chuck: Where in the world have you been. Welcome back buddy! |
| JoeRoss | chuck: if you want the most safety, roll it. But as you know it pays little interest. |
| JoeRoss | To tell you the truth, that's where I have a big chunk also. Purely for safety. |
| chuckmd | I'm beginning to recover......Big Order.........Oh, the Swiss is purely for safety. |
| JoeRoss | Gosh, Chuck are you feeling better? |
| chuckmd | I can actually walk again, gained 5#. |
| JoeRoss | Man that's really good to hear. |
| chuckmd | Thanks, good to be back. |
| JoeRoss | They just can't keep us old birds down for long, right chuck? |
| chuckmd | Right on ! |
| JoeRoss | I think we're made out of higher quality stuff :-D |
| BigBlueSky | lol |
| chuckmd | Because of the nerve, I sound just like you used to sound. |
| JoeRoss | chuck: I still sound like that. Like I'm talking through gravel. |
| kiwidave | Jimsy are you actively trading the market with real money? |
| JoeRoss | I can't sing in church, but I can still call in an order or come down hard on my broker if I need to. |
| chuckmd | Marco still can't understand why I sound the way I do. |
| JoeRoss | Well chuck, he hasn't been to hell and back like we have. |
| kiwidave | Joe, i am about to actively trade options on a small scale if anyone is interested in coming along for the experience all care no responsibility. |
| chuckmd | I told him I had a similar problem as you,......and it was to Hell and back! |
| Joy | Joe: For those of us who have not had the honor to see/hear you, I am full of curiosity of your 'drop-dead-sexy' voice now :-) |
| chuckmd | He sounds like Charley Rangel, congressman from N.Y. |
| kiwidave | Gees Joe, might have to get one of those voices myself haha! |
| JoeRoss | If you want to win in the markets you need to be dyslexic and have a raspy voice ;-) |
| yan | kiwidave: What kind of options are you trading? I've been reading about covered calls lately as a low risk strategy. |
| kiwidave | and add a bit of insanity for good measure. |
| JoeRoss | chuck, we could open up a school to teach people how to have a voice like ours. |
| JoeRoss | kiwi: correct. You have to be a little bit whacko to be a trader. |
| chuckmd | Pretty heavy tariff getting that voice! |
| kiwidave | Yes, will be doing all options strategies etc. Marco will be helping me out and will be using Options Matrix. |
| yan | Joe: Everbank, like any other US bank, has FDIC insurance only up to 100K. Would you recommend spreading the a/c with various banks in that case? |
| JoeRoss | Wow the time flew by tonight. I guess we were having fun. I've been laughing most of the last 10 minutes. |
| JoeRoss | yan: Good idea. While you are still in Australia, open an account with Jyske Bank in Denmark. They won't touch you if you are in the U.S., unless you open while you are out of the U.S. |
| JoeRoss | I have to go. I have a pile of stuff to do but I wish I could stay and chat. |
| yan | Joe: Thanks for your words of wisdom. I always learn something new in this chat. |
| Joy | Joe: Thank you for your gracious time! And I am glad you had a good time teaching us! |
| kiwidave | Laughter is the best medicine. |
| BigBlueSky | Good night everybody! |
| JoeRoss | See y'all next time around. |
| kiwidave | Ok joe. |
| chuckmd | Adios. |
| JoeRoss | Bye everyone! |
Next Chat with
Joe Ross:
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
Time: 8:00 - 9:00 P.M., U.S. Central Time.
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