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Intuition

If only humans were more like machines. In theory, the ultimate trader would act like a robot, analyzing market data with unfailing accuracy, devising a trading plan, and executing it without flaw. But does trading work that way? Trading is more art than science. Without an intuitive grasp of the markets, it's difficult to successfully trade the markets using short-term trading strategies.

Humans have the potential to intuitively grasp situations that evade pure logic. There are times when the world doesn't operate in terms of logic. The physical world is the exception. The universe surely operates according to the laws of physics. If it didn't, we could never travel by air. The human world, however, rarely operates with precise accuracy. Sure, there are those traders with fancy algorithms and mathematical equations to forecast the market action, but ultimately, the markets are really just humans making decisions and acting on their beliefs and emotions. Psychologists learned long ago that people's actual real life behavior could not be broken down and predicted with mathematical equations.

You need to remember the fact that people are not machines, and because they aren't, their behavior cannot be reduced down to simple formulae. As much as we want to believe science can do anything, it's hard to fully account for human motives. You may ask, "Can't we put multiple streams of information together in a multiple regression equation and forecast what the masses will do?" The answer is no, not in the short term. The best you can do is use past data to forecast the future. But history only repeats itself when it does. The "weighting" of a variable in the equation is not fixed, as it is in the physical sciences. One day the weight may be 1 while on another day, it may be 0. We don't know what the precise weighting of the variable is until it's too late. What can you do instead? You must trust your intuition. Again, trading is more art than science. You have to look at patterns and try to anticipate where the market will go next. Is it perfect? No. Is it uncertain and chaotic? Yes!

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Wednesday, 11 December 2019

Derivative transactions, including futures, are complex and carry a high degree of risk. They are intended for sophisticated investors and are not suitable for everyone. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results, and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. For more information, see the Risk Disclosure Statement for Futures and Options.